Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32353417›Full record

ArticleChest2020

Machine Learning and Prediction of All-Cause Mortality in COPD.

Matthew Moll, Dandi Qiao, Elizabeth A Regan, Gary M Hunninghake, Barry J Make, Ruth Tal-Singer, Michael J McGeachie, Peter J Castaldi, Raul San Jose Estepar, George R Washko and 12 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Chest, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 63 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
63citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

63 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Matthew MollChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Dandi QiaoChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Elizabeth A ReganDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of Colorado, Denver, CO.
Gary M HunninghakeDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Barry J MakeDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, Denver, CO.
Ruth Tal-SingerGlaxoSmithKline Research and Development, Collegeville, PA.
Michael J McGeachieChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Peter J CastaldiChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Raul San Jose EsteparDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Applied Chest Imaging Laboratory, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
George R WashkoDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Applied Chest Imaging Laboratory, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
James M WellsDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL.
David LaFonDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL.
Matthew StrandDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, Denver, CO.
Russell P BowlerDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of Colorado, Denver, CO; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, Denver, CO.
MeiLan K HanDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, MI.
Jorgen VestboDivision of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, The University of Manchester and the Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, England.
Bartolome CelliDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Peter CalverleyDepartment of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England.
James CrapoDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, Denver, CO.
Edwin K SilvermanChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Brian D HobbsChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA.
Michael H ChoChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA. Electronic address: remhc@channing.harvard.edu.

Funding

Genetic Epidemiology of COPDU01HL089897 · NHLBI · NATIONAL JEWISH HEALTH · PI CRAPO, JAMES D · 2007 to 2021
$56.9M
Metabolomic signatures of empysema and COPD progression in the COPDGene cohortR01HL089897 · NHLBI · NATIONAL JEWISH HEALTH · PI CRAPO, JAMES D · 2012 to 2016
$31.1M
Genetic Epidemiology of COPDU01HL089856 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI SILVERMAN, EDWIN K · 2007 to 2021
$20.7M
(2 of 2) Genetic Epidemiology of COPDR01HL089856 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI SILVERMAN, EDWIN K · 2012 to 2016
$18.9M
SYSTEMS APPROACHES TO THE EPIDEMIOLOGY, GENETICS AND GENOMICS OF LUNG DISEASEST32HL007427 · NHLBI · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (MEDICAL SCHOOL) · PI DAWN L DEMEO, Edwin K Silverman · 1985 to 2026
$13.6M
Genetic and Genomic Characterization of the Occurrence and Progression of Interstitial Lung AbnormalitiesR01HL135142 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI MICHAEL H. CHO, GARY MATTHEW HUNNINGHAKE · 2017 to 2026
$7.7M
Interstitial Lung Abnormalities: Defining the Phenotype, Causes, and Consequences.R01HL111024 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI HUNNINGHAKE, GARY MATTHEW · 2013 to 2022
$6.4M
Identifying Genetic Determinants of Severe, Early-Onset COPDR01HL113264 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI CHO, MICHAEL H., SILVERMAN, EDWIN K · 2012 to 2016
$6.0M
Asthma Exacerbations and MicroRNA prediction: Treatment Response in an Underserved Ethnicity (AEM-TRUE)R01HL139634 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI MCGEACHIE, MICHAEL JOHN · 2018 to 2022
$4.3M
Genetic and Functional Dissection of a Cluster of COPD GWAS Signals on Chromosome 4qR01HL147148 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI CHO, MICHAEL H., SILVERMAN, EDWIN K · 2019 to 2022
$3.5M
Identifying functional variants in COPD GWAS lociR01HL137927 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI CHO, MICHAEL H., SILVERMAN, EDWIN K · 2017 to 2020
$3.5M
Matrikines and COPD-PHR01HL148215 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI WELLS, JAMES MICHAEL · 2019 to 2023
$2.4M
NHLBI NIH HHS K01 HL129039NHLBI NIH HHS K08 HL123940NHLBI NIH HHS K08 HL136928NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL089856NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL089897NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL111024NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL113264NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL135142NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL137927NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL139634NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL147148NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL148215NHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL007427NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL089856NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL089897
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCOPD is a leading cause of mortality. RESEARCH QUESTION: We hypothesized that applying machine learning to clinical and quantitative CT imaging features would improve mortality prediction in COPD. STUDY DESIGN AND

methodsWe selected 30 clinical, spirometric, and imaging features as inputs for a random survival forest. We used top features in a Cox regression to create a machine learning mortality prediction (MLMP) in COPD model and also assessed the performance of other statistical and machine learning models. We trained the models in subjects with moderate to severe COPD from a subset of subjects in Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) and tested prediction performance in the remainder of individuals with moderate to severe COPD in COPDGene and Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). We compared our model with the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, exercise capacity (BODE) index; BODE modifications; and the age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction index.

resultsWe included 2,632 participants from COPDGene and 1,268 participants from ECLIPSE. The top predictors of mortality were 6-min walk distance, FEV

interpretationAn MLMP-COPD model outperformed four existing models for predicting all-cause mortality across two COPD cohorts. Performance of machine learning was similar to that of traditional statistical methods. The model is available online at: https://cdnm.shinyapps.io/cgmortalityapp/.

Indexed as

Machine LearningCause of DeathFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsPulmonary Disease, Chronic ObstructiveRespiratory Function TestsCOPDmachine learningmortalitypredictionrandom survival forest

Identifiers

PMID32353417
PMCPMC7478228

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.