ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2020
Epidemiological characteristics of the first 53 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 epidemic in Hong Kong, 13 February 2020.
Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Meta-analysis of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 serial intervals and the impact of parameter uncertainty on the coronavirus disease 2019 reproduction number.Statistical methods in medical research · 2022Pooled it
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Setting-specific Transmission Rates: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Pooled it
- Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a secondary analysis using published data.BMJ open · 2021Pooled it
- Time-varying Reproductive Rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its Implications as a Means of Disease Surveillance on Lockdown Restrictions.Annals of surgery · 2021Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Evaluation of the EsteR Toolkit for COVID-19 Decision Support: Sensitivity Analysis and Usability Study.JMIR formative research · 2023Article
- The Effects of School Closures on COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis.Applied health economics and health policy · 2022Article
- Early chains of transmission of COVID-19 in France, January to March 2020.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2022Article
- Household COVID-19 secondary attack rate and associated determinants in Pakistan; A retrospective cohort study.PloS one · 2022Article
- Modelling and projections of the COVID-19 epidemic and the potential impact of social distancing in Cameroon.Journal of public health in Africa · 2021Article
- The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2021Article
- Estimating the transmission advantage of the D614G mutant strain of SARS-CoV-2, December 2019 to June 2020.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021Article
- Shrinkage in serial intervals across transmission generations of COVID-19.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- Constructing and adjusting estimates for household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from prior studies, widespread-testing and contact-tracing data.International journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- A comparative online survey on the intention to get COVID-19 vaccine between Greek and Cypriot healthcare personnel: is the country a predictor?Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- The effectiveness of active surveillance measures for COVID-19 cases in Pudong New Area Shanghai, China, 2020.Journal of medical virology · 2021Article
- Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2021Article
- Evolving Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong From January to August 2020: Retrospective Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2021Article
- Epidemiology, clinical spectrum, viral kinetics and impact of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific region.Respirology (Carlton, Vic.) · 2021Review
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BackgroundCOVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, first appeared in China and subsequently developed into an ongoing epidemic. Understanding epidemiological factors characterising the transmission dynamics of this disease is of fundamental importance.AimsThis study aimed to describe key epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.MethodsWe extracted data of confirmed COVID-19 cases and their close contacts from the publicly available information released by the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection. We used doubly interval censored likelihood to estimate containment delay and serial interval, by fitting gamma, lognormal and Weibull distributions to respective empirical values using Bayesian framework with right truncation. A generalised linear regression model was employed to identify factors associated with containment delay. Secondary attack rate was also estimated.ResultsThe empirical containment delay was 6.39 days; whereas after adjusting for right truncation with the best-fit Weibull distribution, it was 10.4 days (95% CrI: 7.15 to 19.81). Containment delay increased significantly over time. Local source of infection and number of doctor consultations before isolation were associated with longer containment delay. The empirical serial interval was 4.58-6.06 days; whereas the best-fit lognormal distribution to 26 certain-and-probable infector-infectee paired data gave an estimate of 4.77 days (95% CrI: 3.47 to 6.90) with right-truncation. The secondary attack rate among close contacts was 11.7%.ConclusionWith a considerable containment delay and short serial interval, contact-tracing effectiveness may not be optimised to halt the transmission with rapid generations replacement. Our study highlights the transmission risk of social interaction and pivotal role of physical distancing in suppressing the epidemic.
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