ArticleScientific reports2020
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of HIV Mortality in China: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Life-course restructuring of infectious mortality in China, 2004-2021: a national surveillance study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Trends and projection of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Hubei Province, china: an age‒period‒cohort modeling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Joinpoint regression and age period cohort analysis of global and Chinese HIV incidence trends from 1990 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Complexity and Variation in Infectious Disease Birth Cohorts: Findings from HIV+ Medicare and Medicaid Beneficiaries, 1999-2020.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Trends and Projection of the Incidence of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Southwestern China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province, China, 1990-2021.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Patterns of HIV or AIDS Mortality Among Older People From 1990 to 2019 in China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.EClinicalMedicine · 2022Article
- Seroprevalence of Transfusion Transmissible Infections and Associated Risk Factors in Hospitalized Patients before Transfusion in Jinling Hospital Nanjing University: A Three-Year Retrospective Study.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Long-term trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in four central African countries.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. Population From 1994 to 2019: A Join-Point and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Trends in Mortality Rates for Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias Over 30 Years in China.American journal of Alzheimer's disease and other dementiasArticle
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6 authors.
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Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term trends of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality in China and its associations with age, period and birth cohort. We used HIV mortality data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2016 and analysed the data with an age-period-cohort framework. Age effects indicate different risks of different outcomes at specific periods in life; period effects reflect population- wide exposure at a circumscribed point in time; and cohort effects generally reflect differences in risk across birth cohorts.Our results showed that the overall annual percentage change (net drift) of HIV mortality was 11.3% (95% CI: 11.0% to 11.6%) for males and 7.2% (95% CI: 7.0% to 7.5%) for females, and the annual percentage changes in each age group (local drift) were greater than 5% (p < 0.01 for all) in both sexes. In the same birth cohort, the risk of death from HIV increased with age in both sexes after controlling for period effects, and the risk for each five-year period was 1.98 for males and 1.57 for females compared to their previous life stage. Compared to the period of 2002-2006, the relative risk (RR) of HIV mortality in 2012-2016 increased by 56.1% in males and 3.7% in females, and compared to the 1955-1959 birth cohort, the cohort RRs increased markedly, by 82.9 times in males and 34.8 times in females. Considering the rapidly increasing risk of HIV mortality, Chinese policymakers should take immediate measures to target the key age group of 15-44 years in both sexes.
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