ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Acquisitive plants exhibit stronger phenological shifts in response to warming: insights from meta-analysis and long-term monitoring.Nature communications · 2026Pooled it
- Functional group and aridity regulate impacts of climate change on plant phenology: a meta-analysis.Nature communications · 2026Pooled it
- Season-dependent phenological responses and implications for co-occurring plants and butterflies under climate anomalies and extreme weather events.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2026Article
- Contrasting phenological shifts in diurnal and nocturnal Lepidoptera under climate change.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Geographic range is a poor predictor of high-temperature responses among conifers in the boreal-temperate ecotone varying in shade tolerance.Tree physiology · 2026Article
- Phenological Shifts in Wood Formation Tracked by Frost Rings Across Two Centuries.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Comparison of chilling requirements of boreal and temperate tree species in Germany and North America.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Unveiling cryptic phenology and environmental responses in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved tree canopies using phenology camera observations.Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Decoupling of Radial Growth Phenology From Temperature Constraints in the Clonal ShrubEcology and evolution · 2025Article
- Thresholds for spring freeze: measuring risk to improve predictions in a warming world.The New phytologist · 2025Review
- All the light we cannot see: Climate manipulations leave short and long-term imprints in spectral reflectance of trees.Ecology · 2025Article
- Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on a globally rare forest geophyte.Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany) · 2025Article
- Leaf gene expression trajectories during the growing season are consistent between sites and years in American beech.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region.International journal of biometeorology · 2024Article
- Spatial Variation in Responses of Plant Spring Phenology to Climate Warming in Grasslands of Inner Mongolia: Drivers and Application.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Warming effects on grassland soil microbial communities are amplified in cool months.The ISME journal · 2024Article
- Winter climate change mediates the sensitivity of vegetation leaf-out to spring warming in high latitudes in China.Frontiers in plant science · 2024Article
- Tree responses and temperature requirements in two central Italy phenological gardens.International journal of biometeorology · 2023Article
- Climate-driven shifts in leaf senescence are greater for boreal species than temperate species in the Acadian Forest region in contrast to leaf emergence shifts.Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- Demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony for North American songbirds.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.
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