Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32339844›Full record

SynthesisThe Science of the total environment2020

Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Peng Shi, Yinqiao Dong, Huanchang Yan, Chenkai Zhao, Xiaoyang Li, Wei Liu, Miao He, Shixing Tang, Shuhua Xi

Open access · bronzeAbstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in The Science of the total environment, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 174 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
174citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
13.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

174 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 430 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Article
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  8. Relationship between COVID-19 Cases and Environmental Contaminants in Quito, Ecuador.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024
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  11. Review
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  17. Modeling the Climatic Suitability of COVID-19 Cases in Brazil.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Inequality, public health, and COVID-19: an analysis of the Spanish case by municipalities.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2023
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  20. Article

114 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Peng ShiDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Yinqiao DongDepartment of Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Huanchang YanDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Chenkai ZhaoDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Xiaoyang LiDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Wei LiuDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Miao HeDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Shixing TangDepartment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Shuhua XiDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China. Electronic address: shxi@cmu.edu.cn.
China Medical University · CNSouthern Medical University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 °C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect meta-analysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = -0.0100, 95% CI: -0.0125, -0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) and Wuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Indexed as

TemperatureBetacoronavirusChinaCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19HumansPandemicsPneumonia, ViralSARS-CoV-2COVID-19Dynamic transmission modelTemperature

Identifiers

PMID32339844
PMCPMC7177086
OpenAlexW3019999581

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.