ArticleBMC cardiovascular disorders2020
Pooled cohort equations heart failure risk score predicts cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults.
Article in BMC cardiovascular disorders, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Recalibrating Risk: A Call for South Asian-Focused Heart Failure Prediction Models.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Use of artificial intelligence for detecting left ventricular dysfunction and predicting incident heart failure risk.ESC heart failure · 2025Review
- Association Between Phenotypic Age and the Risk of Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Clinical cardiology · 2024Article
- Validation of Heart Failure-Specific Risk Equations in 1.3 Million Israeli Adults and Usefulness of Combining Ambulatory and Hospitalization Data from a Large Integrated Health Care Organization.The American journal of cardiology · 2022Article
- Contemporary Review of Risk Scores in Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Deaths.Current cardiology reports · 2022Review
- Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessed in Old Age Predicts Disability and Mortality: A Retrospective Cohort Study of Community-Dwelling Older Adults.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2021Article
- Distribution and Correlates of Incident Heart Failure Risk in South Asian Americans: The MASALA Study.Journal of cardiac failure · 2021Article
- Heart Failure Risk Distribution and Trends in the United States Population, NHANES 1999-2016.The American journal of medicine · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHeart failure (HF) represents an accumulated burden of systemic vascular damage and is the fastest growing form of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Due to increasing HF-attributable mortality rates, we sought to assess the association of the new 2019 Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) risk score with CVD and all-cause mortality.
methodsWe linked data for 6333 black and white men and women aged 40-79 years, whom underwent electrocardiographic examination from the Third National Health and Nutrition Exam Survey, to National Death Index record matches. Sex- and race-specific PCP-HF risk scores were calculated using data on age, smoking, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, QRS complex duration, and antihypertensive and/or glucose-lowering medications. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios for the association of the PCP-HF risk score with CVD and all-cause mortality.
resultsIndividuals were on average 54.9 years old (51.7% women, 25.4% black) and the median 10-year HF risk was 1.6% (Q1 = 0.5, Q3 = 4.8). There were 3178 deaths, 1116 from CVD, over a median follow-up time of 22.3 years. Black women had a higher 10-year HF risk compared to white women (2.1% vs. 1.1%; p < 0.01), while no significant difference was observed in predicted HF risk between black men and white men (2.3% vs. 2.1%, p = 0.16). A two-fold higher PCP-HF risk score was associated with a significant 58% (HR = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.48-1.70; p < 0.0001) and 38% (HR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.32-1.46; p < 0.0001) greater risk of CVD and all-cause mortality, respectively.
conclusionThe PCP-HF risk score predicts CVD and all-cause mortality, in addition to the 10-year risk of incident HF among white and black men and women. These results underline the expanded utility of the PCP-HF risk score and suggest that its implementation in the clinical and population health settings may improve primary CVD prevention in the United States.
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