ArticleJournal of neurology2020
Predicting onset of secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis using genetic and non-genetic factors.
Article in Journal of neurology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- The HLA paradox across populations in multiple sclerosis progression: a systematic review.BMC neurology · 2026Pooled it
- Predictive factors for the progression of multiple sclerosis: a meta-analysis.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2025Pooled it
- Predictors of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in a real word retrospective cohort: the role of clinical factors and disease-modifying therapy patterns.Acta neurologica Belgica · 2026Article
- Allergic phenotypes and asthma in multiple sclerosis: Epidemiologic and genetic relationships.Multiple sclerosis (Houndmills, Basingstoke, England) · 2026Article
- The epidemiology, pathology and pathogenesis of MS: Therapeutic implications.Neurotherapeutics : the journal of the American Society for Experimental NeuroTherapeutics · 2025Review
- Adaptive and Innate Immunity Are Key Drivers of Age at Onset of Multiple Sclerosis.Neurology. Genetics · 2024Article
- Multiple Sclerosis Polygenic Risk Is Not Enriched in Three Multicase Families in Comparison to Population-Based Cases.Human mutation · 2024Article
- Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Review
- TSPO-Detectable Chronic Active Lesions Predict Disease Progression in Multiple Sclerosis.Neurology(R) neuroimmunology & neuroinflammation · 2023Article
- Long-term trajectories of ambulatory impairment in multiple sclerosis.Multiple sclerosis (Houndmills, Basingstoke, England) · 2023Article
- Liver kinase B1 rs9282860 polymorphism and risk for multiple sclerosis in White and Black Americans.Multiple sclerosis and related disorders · 2021Article
- A novel prognostic score to assess the risk of progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients.European journal of neurology · 2021Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPredicting the transition from relapsing-remitting (RR) to secondary-progressive (SP) multiple sclerosis (MS) from early in the disease course is challenging.
objectiveTo construct prediction models for SPMS using sociodemographic and self-reported clinical measures that would be available at/near MS onset, with specific considerations for MS genetic risk factors.
methodsWe conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study based on 1295 white, non-Hispanic individuals. Cox proportional hazard prediction models were generated for three censored SPMS outcomes (ever transitioning, transitioning within 10 years, and transitioning within 20 years) using sociodemographic, comorbid health information, symptomatology, and other measures of early disease activity. HLADRB1*15:01 and HLA-A*02:01, as well as a genetic risk score, were iteratively considered in each model. We also explored the relationships for all 200 MS risk variants located outside the major histocompatibility complex. Nomograms were generated for the final prediction models.
resultsAn older age of MS onset and being male predicted a short latency to SPMS, while a longer interval between the first two relapses predicted a much longer latency. Comorbid conditions and onset symptomatology variably predicted the risk for transitioning to SPMS for each censored outcome. The most notable observation was that HLA-A*02:01, which confers decreased risk for MS, also contributed to decreased hazards for SPMS.
conclusionsThese results have the potential to advance prognostication for a person with MS using information available at or near onset, potentially improving care and quality of life for those who live with MS.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.