SynthesisJournal of the American Heart Association2020
Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Detect Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis.
Synthesis in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Temporal trends in short- and long-term outcomes after carotid interventions for symptomatic or asymptomatic stenosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European stroke journal · 2026Pooled it
- Detection of asymptomatic carotid stenosis in patients with lower-extremity arterial disease: development and external validations of a risk score.The British journal of surgery · 2021Pooled it
- Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Detect Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2020Pooled it
- Diagnosis of extracranial carotid stenosis by MRA of the brain.Scientific reports · 2021Trial
- Hemi-ellipsoid formula enables accurate assessment of carotid plaque volume and atherosclerotic burden.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Prediction of Severe Baseline Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Subsequent Risk of Stroke and Cardiovascular Disease.Stroke · 2024Article
- Risk Factors for Ankle Brachial Index and Carotid Artery Stenosis in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.Metabolites · 2024Article
- Glucose-lowering medications and glucose levels as the major determinants of progression of carotid atherosclerosis in middle-aged adults and elders: a community-based prospective study.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2024Article
- Whole Blood Metabolite Profiles Reflect Changes in Energy Metabolism in Heart Failure.Metabolites · 2022Article
- Successful implementation of best medical treatment for patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis within a randomized controlled trial (SPACE-2).Neurological research and practice · 2021Article
- Article
- Joint Associations Between Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference With Atrial Fibrillation in Men and Women.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2021Observational
- Development and Internal Validation of a Risk Score to Detect Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis.European journal of vascular and endovascular surgery : the official journal of the European Society for Vascular Surgery · 2021Article
- Atherosclerotic Extension of Carotid Arteries: An Insertion in Clinical Practice.International journal of vascular medicine · 2020Article
- Why selective screening for asymptomatic carotid stenosis is currently appropriate: a special report.Expert review of cardiovascular therapyReview
- Cost-Effectiveness of Risk-Based Screening for Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis.MDM policy & practiceArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Background Significant asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) is associated with higher risk of strokes. While the prevalence of moderate and severe ACS is low in the general population, prediction models may allow identification of individuals at increased risk, thereby enabling targeted screening. We identified established prediction models for ACS and externally validated them in a large screening population. Methods and Results Prediction models for prevalent cases with ≥50% ACS were identified in a systematic review (975 studies reviewed and 6 prediction models identified [3 for moderate and 3 for severe ACS]) and then validated using data from 596 469 individuals who attended commercial vascular screening clinics in the United States and United Kingdom. We assessed discrimination and calibration. In the validation cohort, 11 178 (1.87%) participants had ≥50% ACS and 2033 (0.34%) had ≥70% ACS. The best model included age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, vascular and cerebrovascular disease, measured blood pressure, and blood lipids. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.75) for ≥50% ACS and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) for ≥70% ACS. The prevalence of ≥50% ACS in the highest decile of risk was 6.51%, and 1.42% for ≥70% ACS. Targeted screening of the 10% highest risk identified 35% of cases with ≥50% ACS and 42% of cases with ≥70% ACS. Conclusions Individuals at high risk of significant ACS can be selected reliably using a prediction model. The best-performing prediction models identified over one third of all cases by targeted screening of individuals in the highest decile of risk only.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.