ArticleJournal of research in health sciences2019
Epidemiological Features of Human Brucellosis in Iran (2011-2018) and Prediction of Brucellosis with Data-Mining Models.
Article in Journal of research in health sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Spatio-temporal analysis of human brucellosis in North Khorasan, Iran (2015-2023): A cross-sectional study.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Resurgence of Human Brucellosis in Khuzestan Province, Southwestern Iran: Epidemiological Trends From 2017 to 2024.International journal of microbiology · 2026Article
- Prediction and control for the transmission of brucellosis in inner Mongolia, China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Risk effects of environmental factors on human brucellosis in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang, China, 2014-2023.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatio-temporal analysis of human brucellosis distribution in Neyshabur, Iran from 2015 to 2022, a cross-sectional study.PloS one · 2025Article
- Iranian livestock breeders' knowledge, attitude, practice, and behavioral determinants related to brucellosis prevention.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Infection of tendon sheaths, joints, bursae, soft tissue, and tendon rapture by brucella: A case report.Clinical case reports · 2023Article
- Brucellosis: epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and treatment-a comprehensive review.Annals of medicine · 2023Review
- The research on TBATS and ELM models for prediction of human brucellosis cases in mainland China: a time series study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Trends in the Epidemiology of Brucellosis Cases in Iran during the Last Decade.Iranian journal of public health · 2022Article
- Brucellosis in livestock: First study on seroepidemiology, risk factors, and preventive strategies to manage the disease in Famenin, Iran.Veterinary world · 2022Article
- Epidemiology and time series analysis of human brucellosis in Tebessa province, Algeria, from 2000 to 2020.Journal of research in health sciences · 2022Article
- A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Application of the PRECEDE -PROCEED model in prevention of brucellosis focused on livestock vaccination process.BMC veterinary research · 2021Article
- Research on the predictive effect of a combined model of ARIMA and neural networks on human brucellosis in Shanxi Province, China: a time series predictive analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Effect of educational intervention on preventive behaviors of brucellosis among health volunteers in Rafsanjan city: Application of health belief model.Journal of education and health promotion · 2021Article
- Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Brucellar arthritis and sacroiliitis: an 8-year retrospective comparative analysis of demographic, clinical, and paraclinical features.Therapeutic advances in infectious diseaseArticle
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundBrucellosis is known as the major zoonotic disease. We aimed to compare the performance of some data-mining models in predicting the monthly brucellosis cases in Iran. STUDY
designPopulation-based cohort study.
methodsThree data mining techniques including the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Random Forest (RF) besides to one classic model including Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Iran during 2011-2018. We used several criteria (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2) and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for appraising the accuracy of prediction and performance of our models. All analysis was done using free statistical software of R3.4.0
resultsOverall 118867 cases (with a mean age of 34.01±1.65 yr) of brucellosis were observed and seven-year incidence rate of brucellosis in Iran was 21.78 (95% CI: 21.66, 21.91). The majority of patients (58.84%) were male and 25-29 yr old. The first three provinces with the highest incidence rate of brucellosis included the following; Kurdistan (71.39 per 100000), Lorestan (68.09 per 100000) and Hamadan (56.24 per 100000).
conclusionBrucellosis was more common in males, 25-29 aged yr, western provinces and spring months. The disease had a decreasing trend in the last years. MARS model was more appropriate rather than data mining models for prediction of monthly incidence rate of brucellosis.
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