ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2020
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1,289 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1,289 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prevalence of common respiratory viruses of infants with respiratory tract infections in European countries in the past decade: a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing between the pre-COVID-19, pandemic, and post-COVID-19 periods.European journal of pediatrics · 2026Pooled it
- A systematic review on vaccine developmental approaches: Evaluating efficacy, and addressing challenges of infectious diseases in the post-COVID-19 era.Virus research · 2026Pooled it
- Characteristics of subarachnoid hemorrhage associated with COVID-19 infection: A systematic review and descriptive analysis.Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases : the official journal of National Stroke Association · 2023Pooled it
- Delayed introduction, transmission variation and susceptible dynamics explain spatial asynchrony during Republic of Korea's large pertussis outbreak.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2026Article
- Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Heritable transgenic schistosomes as a living platform for SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody secretion.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Asymmetric post-pandemic recovery of influenza A and B since 2020 in Hong Kong: an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis of weekly surveillance data with subtype and lineage characterization.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Integrating Kolmogorov-Arnold networks with ordinary differential equations for efficient, interpretable, and robust deep learning: Epidemiology of infectious diseases as a case study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Respiratory pathogen epidemiology in the post-pandemic era: a multicenter retrospective study from Saudi Arabia.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Seroprevalence of endemic and emergent coronaviruses among SARS-COV-2 patients and healthcare workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Rethinking COVID-19 seasonality: A summer respiratory virus in the tropics, contrast to influenza.World journal of virology · 2026Review
- Final-Size Solutions for SIRI Models with Vaccination.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Update on Influenza.The American journal of the medical sciences · 2026Review
- Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- A one health perspective on the intestinal microbiome's role in COVID-19 outcomes and recovery.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Review
- Article
- Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Models for SARS-CoV-2 health policies: social distancing amid vaccination and virus variants.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
1,229 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.