ArticleBreast cancer research and treatment2020
Prediction of contralateral breast cancer: external validation of risk calculators in 20 international cohorts.
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Article in Breast cancer research and treatment, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Feasibility and Efficacy of Decision Aids to Improve Decision-Making for Contralateral Prophylactic Mastectomy: A Systematic Review.Annals of surgical oncology · 2025Pooled it
- Clinicopathological characteristics and potential impact of previous treatment history in metachronous contralateral breast cancer: Insights from a real-world retrospective study.Oncology letters · 2026Article
- Can DNA Methylation in Peritumoral and Contralateral Breast Tissue Predict Recurrence or Second Breast Cancers?Current issues in molecular biology · 2026Article
- Reproductive factors and risk of contralateral breast cancer by age and hormone receptor status: The California Breast Cancer Survivorship Consortium.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Overall and central adiposity and risk of contralateral breast cancer: The California Breast Cancer Survivorship Consortium.International journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Society of Surgical Oncology Breast Disease Site Working Group Statement on Contralateral Mastectomy: Indications, Outcomes, and Risks.Annals of surgical oncology · 2024Review
- Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy for unilateral breast cancer in Chinese female population: a retrospective cohort study.Gland surgery · 2023Article
- Trends in Radiation Dose to the Contralateral Breast During Breast Cancer Radiation Therapy.Radiation research · 2023Article
- EBCC-13 manifesto: Balancing pros and cons for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy.European journal of cancer (Oxford, England : 1990) · 2023Review
- The Contribution of Germline Pathogenic Variants in Breast Cancer Genes to Contralateral Breast Cancer Risk inCancers · 2023Article
- CBCRisk-Black: a personalized contralateral breast cancer risk prediction model for black women.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2022Article
- The risk of contralateral breast cancer: a SEER-based analysis.British journal of cancer · 2021Article
- Breast adipocyte size associates with ipsilateral invasive breast cancer risk after ductal carcinoma in situ.NPJ breast cancer · 2021Article
- Clinical characteristics and the associated risk factors of the development of bilateral breast cancers: A case-control study.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
57 authors at 20 institutions in 11 countries.
Daniele GiardielloDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Michael HauptmannBrandenburg Medical School, Institute of Biostatistics and Registry Research, Neuruppin, Germany.
Ewout W SteyerbergDepartment of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Muriel A AdankFamily Cancer Clinic, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Delal AkdenizDepartment of Medical Oncology, Family Cancer Clinic, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Jannet C BlomDepartment of Medical Oncology, Family Cancer Clinic, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Carl BlomqvistDepartment of Oncology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Stig E BojesenCopenhagen General Population Study, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Herlev, Denmark.
Manjeet K BollaCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Mariël BrinkhuisLaboratory for Pathology, East-Netherlands, Hengelo, The Netherlands.
Jenny Chang-ClaudeDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Kamila CzeneDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Peter DevileeDepartment of Pathology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Alison M DunningCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Douglas F EastonCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Diana M EcclesCancer Sciences Academic Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Peter A FaschingDavid Geffen School of Medicine, Department of Medicine Division of Hematology and Oncology, University of California At Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Jonine FigueroaThe University of Edinburgh Medical School, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, Edinburgh, UK.
Henrik FlygerDepartment of Breast Surgery, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Herlev, Denmark.
Montserrat García-ClosasDepartment of Health and Human Services, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Lothar HaeberleUniversity Hospital Erlangen, Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Comprehensive Cancer Center ER-EMN, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany.
Christopher A HaimanDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Per HallDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ute HamannMolecular Genetics of Breast Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
John L HopperCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Agnes JagerDepartment of Medical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Anna JakubowskaDepartment of Genetics and Pathology, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland.
Audrey JungDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Renske KeemanDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Linetta B KoppertDepartment of Surgical Oncology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Iris KramerDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Diether LambrechtsVIB Center for Cancer Biology, Leuven, Belgium.
Loic Le MarchandEpidemiology Program, University of Hawaii Cancer Center, Honolulu, HI, USA.
Annika LindblomDepartment of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Jan LubińskiDepartment of Genetics and Pathology, Pomeranian Medical University, Szczecin, Poland.
Mehdi ManoochehriMolecular Genetics of Breast Cancer, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
Luigi MarianiUnit of Clinical Epidemiology and Trial Organization, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Dei Tumori, Milan, Italy.
Heli NevanlinnaDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Hester S A OldenburgDepartment of Surgical Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Saskia PeldersDepartment of Medical Oncology, Family Cancer Clinic, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Paul D P PharoahCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Mitul ShahCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Sabine SieslingDepartment of Research, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Vincent T H B M SmitDepartment of Pathology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Melissa C SoutheyPrecision Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia.
William J TapperFaculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Rob A E M TollenaarDepartment of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Alexandra J van den BroekDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Carolien H M van DeurzenDepartment of Pathology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Flora E van LeeuwenDivision of Psychosocial Research and Epidemiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Chantal van OngevalLeuven Cancer Institute, Leuven Multidisciplinary Breast Center, Department of Oncology, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Laura J Van't VeerDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Qin WangCentre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Camilla WendtDepartment of Clinical Science and Education, Karolinska Institutet, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, Sweden.
Pieter J WestenendLaboratory for Pathology, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Maartje J HooningDepartment of Medical Oncology, Family Cancer Clinic, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Marjanka K SchmidtDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute - Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. mk.schmidt@nki.nl.
The Netherlands Cancer Institute · NLErasmus MC Cancer Institute · NLUniversity of Cambridge · GBLeiden University Medical Center · NLGerman Cancer Research Center · DEGentofte Hospital · DKKarolinska Institutet · SEKU Leuven · BEPomeranian Medical University · PLStockholm South General Hospital · SEUniversity of Southampton · GBComprehensive Cancer Center Erlangen · DEFondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori · ITHeidelberg University · DEMedizinische Hochschule Brandenburg Theodor Fontane · DEMonash Health · AUNational Cancer Institute · USNetherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation · NLÖrebro University Hospital · SEThales (Netherlands) · NL
Funding
Understanding Population Differences in Cancer: The MEC StudyU01CA164973 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI HAIMAN, CHRISTOPHER ALAN, LE MARCHAND, LOIC · 2015 to 2025
$37.4MGENETIC SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CANCER IN MULTIETHNIC COHORTSR01CA063464 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HENDERSON, BRIAN E · 2001 to 2005
$23.2MMultiethnic Cohort Study of Diet and CancerR37CA054281 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI KOLONEL, LAURENCE N. · 2003 to 2012
$23.2MBreast Cancer Family Registry CohortUM1CA164920 · NCI · CANCER PREVENTION INSTIT OF CALIFORNIA · PI ANDRULIS, IRENE, BUYS, SAUNDRA S · 2012 to 2017
$12.7MUnderstanding Ethnic Differences in Cancer: The Multiethnic Cohort StudyUM1CA164973 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI HENDERSON, BRIAN E, LE MARCHAND, LOIC · 2012 to 2014
$11.3MCharacterizing Genetic Susceptibility to Breast and Prostate Cancer; the BPC3U01CA098758 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HENDERSON, BRIAN E · 2003 to 2010
$11.0MMULTIETHNIC/MINORITY COHORT STUDY OF DIET AND CANCERR01CA054281 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI KOLONEL, LAURENCE N. · 1993 to 2002
$4.5MFine-mapping of 8q24 and Loci Identified in Genome-Wide Studies for Breast & ColoR01CA132839 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HAIMAN, CHRISTOPHER ALAN · 2008 to 2010
$2.0MGENETIC SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CANCER IN MULTIETHNIC COHORTSU01CA063464 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI HENDERSON, BRIAN E · 1996 to 2000
$943kCancer Research UK 16563Cancer Research UK 16565Intramural NIH HHS Z99 CA999999NCI NIH HHS R01 CA054281NCI NIH HHS R01 CA063464NCI NIH HHS R01 CA132839NCI NIH HHS R37 CA054281NCI NIH HHS U01 CA063464NCI NIH HHS U01 CA098758NCI NIH HHS U01 CA164973NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA164920NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA164973
Abstract
backgroundThree tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC).
methodsWe analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope.
resultsThe AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula.
conclusionsCurrent CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.
Indexed as
Clinical Decision-MakingAdultBreast NeoplasmsCohort StudiesErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine KinasesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansInternational AgenciesMastectomyNeoplasms, Second PrimaryPrognosisReceptors, EstrogenRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsERBB2 protein, humanErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine KinasesReceptors, EstrogenClinical decision-makingContralateral breast cancerRisk predictionValidation
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