ArticleFrontiers of medicine2020
Phase- and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China.
Article in Frontiers of medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Design of an intelligent disinfection control system based on an STM32 single-chip microprocessor by using the YOLO algorithm.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health status among general masses: An in-deep analysis of the worst "hitters" of COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of education and health promotion · 2024Article
- Evaluation of phase-adjusted interventions for COVID-19 using an improved SEIR model.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Roll to roll in situ preparation of recyclable, washable, antibacterial Ag loaded nonwoven fabric.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Application of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in COVID-19 Prevention, Diagnosis, Treatment and Management Decisions in China.Journal of medical systems · 2021Review
- COVID-19: breaking down a global health crisis.Annals of clinical microbiology and antimicrobials · 2021Review
- A city cluster risk-based approach for Sars-CoV-2 and isolation barriers based on anonymized mobile phone users' location data.Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios.Frontiers of medicine · 2020Article
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21 authors.
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Abstract
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. The estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55 303-84 520 and 83 944-129 312, respectively, while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13, 2020 with the estimated 13 035-19 108 cases. According to the estimation, the outbreak would abate in March and April all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei Province. Strict prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.
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