ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2020
Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 341 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
341 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The methodologies to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19: a systematic review.European journal of epidemiology · 2022Pooled it
- Comorbidities and complications of COVID-19 associated with disease severity, progression, and mortality in China with centralized isolation and hospitalization: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Data-driven estimation of COVID-19 community prevalence through wastewater-based epidemiology.The Science of the total environment · 2021Pooled it
- Dietary Changes and Anxiety during the Coronavirus Pandemic: Differences between the Sexes.Nutrients · 2021Trial
- Evaluation of the safety and efficacy of using human menstrual blood-derived mesenchymal stromal cells in treating severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients: An exploratory clinical trial.Clinical and translational medicine · 2021Trial
- Hyper-exponential growth in an epidemic model: some explicit solutions and their significance.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Retrospective estimate of COVID-19 infections in nine Colombian cities in 2020.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Designing network based intervention strategies for epidemics of infectious diseases from edge based infection probability.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Burnout among COVID-19 hospital-based contact tracers in Singapore: results of a mixed-method, cross-sectional multicentre study.Singapore medical journal · 2025Article
- Fast and exact stochastic simulations of epidemics on static and temporal networks.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Projected spread models.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Fine-grained forecasting of COVID-19 trends at the county level in the United States.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- Model predicted human mobility explains COVID-19 transmission in urban space without behavioral data.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Significance of supervision sampling in control of communicable respiratory disease simulated by a new model during different stages of the disease.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Critical mobility in policy making for epidemic containment.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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- Study on the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and agent disease risk simulation model based on individual factors in Xi'an City.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Article
- The effect of urban-rail station area coverage on city blocks' epidemic transmission: the case of the rail-supportive city of Beijing, China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
281 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting with an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals, as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes, and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.