ArticleCMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne2020
Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada.
Article in CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
91 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 173 citations in OpenAlex.
- Do COVID-19 Infectious Disease Models Incorporate the Social Determinants of Health? A Systematic Review.Public health reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Changes in Stroke Hospital Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Stroke · 2021Pooled it
- COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis.BMC medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Optimal timing for staged vaccination campaigns: Insights from scenario tree-based stochastic optimization.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- The Effect of COVID-19 on Length of Stay in Hospital and Patient Population Following Burn Injury.Journal of burn care & research : official publication of the American Burn Association · 2026Article
- Analysis of equity in the distribution of human resources and hospital beds and its association with the COVID-19 mortality rate: a case of Iran.BMC health services research · 2025Article
- Article
- Review on Panic Buying Behavior during Pandemics: Influencing Factors, Stockpiling, and Intervention Strategies.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Inequalities in healthcare use during the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Comparing quality indicator rates for home care clients receiving palliative and end-of-life care before and during the Covid-19 pandemic.BMC palliative care · 2024Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID-19 community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study.BMJ open respiratory research · 2023Article
- Modelling COVID-19 pandemic control strategies in metropolitan and rural health districts in New South Wales, Australia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A Practical Ambulatory Approach to Atrioventricular Block Secondary to Lyme Carditis.The Journal of innovations in cardiac rhythm management · 2023Article
- Critical roles of cytokine storm and bacterial infection in patients with COVID-19: therapeutic potential of mesenchymal stem cells.Inflammopharmacology · 2023Review
- Development and validation of a prediction model for mechanical ventilation based on comorbidities in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Associations between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hospital Infrastructure Adaptation and Planning-A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Efficacy and safety of corticosteroid regimens for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a meta-analysis.Future virology · 2022Review
- Learning models for forecasting hospital resource utilization for COVID-19 patients in Canada.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Fast tracking in cardiac surgery: is it safe?Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2022Article
- Development of a repeated-measures predictive model and clinical risk score for mortality in ventilated COVID-19 patients.Canadian journal of anaesthesia = Journal canadien d'anesthesie · 2022Article
31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIncreasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation of mildly ill people delays the peak of outbreaks and reduces the need for this care in each Canadian province.
methodsWe developed a computational model and simulated scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks within each province. Using estimates of COVID-19 characteristics, we projected the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation, assuming an average number of 2.5 secondary cases, and compared scenarios in which different proportions of mildly ill people practised self-isolation 24 hours after symptom onset.
resultsWithout self-isolation, the peak of outbreaks would occur in the first half of June, and an average of 569 ICU bed days per 10 000 population would be needed. When 20% of cases practised self-isolation, the peak was delayed by 2-4 weeks, and ICU bed requirement was reduced by 23.5% compared with no self-isolation. Increasing self-isolation to 40% reduced ICU use by 53.6% and delayed the peak of infection by an additional 2-4 weeks. Assuming current ICU bed occupancy rates above 80% and self-isolation of 40%, demand would still exceed available (unoccupied) ICU bed capacity.
interpretationAt the peak of COVID-19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with self-isolation at 40%. Our results show the coming challenge for the health care system in Canada and the potential role of self-isolation in reducing demand for hospital-based and ICU care.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.