Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32265763›Full record

ReviewFrontiers in psychiatry2020

Models Predicting Psychosis in Patients With High Clinical Risk: A Systematic Review.

Cristiana Montemagni, Silvio Bellino, Nadja Bracale, Paola Bozzatello, Paola Rocca

Open access · goldAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Frontiers in psychiatry, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Cristiana MontemagniDepartment of Neuroscience, School of Medicine, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Silvio BellinoDepartment of Neuroscience, School of Medicine, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Nadja BracaleDepartment of Neuroscience, School of Medicine, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Paola BozzatelloDepartment of Neuroscience, School of Medicine, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Paola RoccaDepartment of Neuroscience, School of Medicine, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
University of Turin · IT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe present study reviews predictive models used to improve prediction of psychosis onset in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR), using clinical, biological, neurocognitive, environmental, and combinations of predictors.

methodsA systematic literature search on PubMed was carried out (from 1998 through 2019) to find all studies that developed or validated a model predicting the transition to psychosis in CHR subjects.

resultsWe found 1,406 records. Thirty-eight of them met the inclusion criteria; 11 studies using clinical predictive models, seven studies using biological models, five studies using neurocognitive models, five studies using environmental models, and 18 studies using combinations of predictive models across different domains. While the highest positive predictive value (PPV) in clinical, biological, neurocognitive, and combined predictive models were relatively high (all above 83), the highest PPV across environmental predictive models was modest (63%). Moreover, none of the combined models showed a superiority when compared with more parsimonious models (using only neurocognitive, clinical, biological, or environmental factors).

conclusionsThe use of predictive models may allow high prognostic accuracy for psychosis prediction in CHR individuals. However, only ten studies had performed an internal validation of their models. Among the models with the highest PPVs, only the biological and neurocognitive but not the combined models underwent validation. Further validation of predicted models is needed to ensure external validity.

Indexed as

attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS)brief and limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS)clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR)genetic risk and deterioration syndrome (GRD)predictive model

Identifiers

PMID32265763
PMCPMC7105709
OpenAlexW3013335677

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.