Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32264873›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2020

Long-term evaluation of the rise in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England: a trend analysis.

Emma Beard, Jamie Brown, Sarah Jackson, Robert West, Will Anderson, Deborah Arnott, Lion Shahab

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. What is the Relationship Between Raising the Minimum Legal Sales Age of Tobacco Above 20 and Cigarette Smoking? A Systematic Review.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
    Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Estimating Young Adult Uptake of Smoking by Area Across the United Kingdom.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
    Article
  4. Perceptions of Children and Young People in England on the Smokefree Generation Policy: A Focus Group Study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Emma BeardDepartment of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, UK. e.beard@ucl.ac.uk.
Jamie BrownDepartment of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, UK.
Sarah JacksonDepartment of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, UK.
Robert WestDepartment of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, UK.
Will AndersonAction on Smoking and Health (ASH), London, UK.
Deborah ArnottAction on Smoking and Health (ASH), London, UK.
Lion ShahabDepartment of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, UK.

Funding

Cancer Research UK 22962Cancer Research UK C1417/A14135Medical Research Council MR/S037519/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo assess the long-term impact of the increase in age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England in October 2007.

methodsData were collected between November 2006 and September 2018 on 252,601 participants taking part in a nationally representative survey of adults aged 16+ in England, the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS). We assessed the impact of the introduction of the increase in age-of-sale on prevalence of ever smoking, current smoking, and quit attempts, among 16-17 year olds compared with 18-24 year olds.

resultsFollowing the increase in age-of-sale, there was a declining trend in ever smoking that was greater among 16-17 year olds than 18-24 year olds (OR 0.990 versus OR 0.993; p = 0.019). Data on current smoking were insensitive to detect a difference between the age groups in a step-level change or change in trend following the increase in age-of-sale (Bayes factors (BFs) 0.75 and 2.10). Data on quit attempts were also insensitive to detect a change in trend (BF 0.71), and despite a greater step-level decline among those aged 16-17 (OR 0.311 versus OR 0.547, p = 0.025), quit attempts remained higher among those aged 16-17. Secondary analysis indicated that post-policy change, trends in current and ever smoking were linear for 16-17 year olds but quadratic for 18-24 year olds (slowing decline).

conclusionThere is some evidence from an assessment of long-term trends in the Smoking Toolkit Study that the increase in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes in England was associated with a greater long-term decline in ever smoking among those aged 16-17 compared with those aged 18-24.

Indexed as

AdolescentAge FactorsEnglandFemaleHumansMaleSmokingTobacco ProductsAge-of-saleSmokingTobaccoYouth

Identifiers

PMID32264873
PMCPMC7140583

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.