ArticleBMC cardiovascular disorders2020
A model to predict unstable carotid plaques in population with high risk of stroke.
Article in BMC cardiovascular disorders, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Establishment and validation of a risk prediction model for acute ischemic stroke in a carotid artery plaque population.Quantitative imaging in medicine and surgery · 2025Article
- Platelet reactivity to adenosine diphosphate andNeurosciences (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia) · 2025Article
- Serum LDL-C/HDL-C ratio and the risk of carotid plaques: a longitudinal study.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2022Article
- A survey on the safety of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine among a population with stroke risk in China.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
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9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundSeveral models have been developed to predict asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS), however these models did not pay much attention to people with lower level of stenosis (<50% or carotid plaques, especially instable carotid plaques) who might benefit from early interventions. Here, we developed a new model to predict unstable carotid plaques through systematic screening in population with high risk of stroke.
methodsCommunity residents who participated the China National Stroke Screening and Prevention Project (CNSSPP) were screened for their stroke risks. A total of 2841 individuals with high risk of stroke were enrolled in this study, 266 (9.4%) of them were found unstable carotid plaques. A total of 19 risk factors were included in this study. Subjects were randomly distributed into Derivation Set group or Validation Set group. According to their carotid ultrasonography records, subjects in derivation set group were further categorized into unstable plaque group or stable plaque group.
results174 cases and 1720 cases from Derivation Set group were categorized into unstable plaque group and stable plaque group respectively. The independent risk factors for carotid unstable plaque were: male (OR 1.966, 95%CI 1.406-2.749), older age (50-59, OR 6.012, 95%CI 1.410-25.629; 60-69, OR 13.915, 95%CI 3.381-57.267;≥70, OR 31.267, 95%CI 7.472-130.83), married(OR 1.780, 95%CI 1.186-2.672), LDL-C(OR 2.015, 95%CI 1.443-2.814), and HDL-C(OR 2.130, 95%CI 1.360-3.338). A predictive scoring system was generated, ranging from 0 to 10. The cut-off value of this predictive scoring system is 6.5. The AUC value for derivation and validation set group were 0.738 and 0.737 respectively.
conclusionsFor those individuals with high risk of stroke, we developed a new model which could identify those who have a higher chance to have unstable carotid plaques. When an individual's predictive model score exceeds 6.5, the probability of having carotid unstable plaques is high, and carotid ultrasonography should be conducted accordingly. This model could be helpful in the primary prevention of stroke.
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