ArticleGeoHealth2020
The Effects of Heat Exposure on Human Mortality Throughout the United States.
Article in GeoHealth, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 111 citations in OpenAlex.
- Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2022Pooled it
- Impact of community education on heat-related health outcomes and heat literacy among low-income communities in Karachi, Pakistan: a randomised controlled trial.BMJ global health · 2022Trial
- Vitamin C mitigates thermal stress-induced oxidative imbalance and cortisol elevation in Wistar rats.Biologia futura · 2026Article
- The True Cost of Heat: Evaluating Heat-Related Mortality Estimation Methods in Texas.GeoHealth · 2026Article
- Experience-driven perceptions misalign with assessed heat risk in the United States.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Hospitalized Adults' Willingness to Use Mobile Apps for Air Quality and Heat Monitoring: A Survey-Based Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Sometimes missing the heat: the risk of underestimating extreme heat days with daily maximum heat index approximation.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- State-of-Art in Studying the Public Health Effects of Heat: A Literature Review.Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ) · 2025Review
- Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico.Science advances · 2024Article
- Climate change and public health in California: A structured review of exposures, vulnerable populations, and adaptation measures.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Review
- Moderating AC Usage Can Reduce Thermal Disparity between Indoor and Outdoor Environments.Environmental science & technology · 2024Article
- Article
- A newly proposed heatstroke-induced coagulopathy score in patients with heat illness: A multicenter retrospective study in China.Chinese journal of traumatology = Zhonghua chuang shang za zhi · 2024Article
- Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Coping with extreme heat: current exposure and implications for the future.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2024Review
- Associations between ambient temperature and pregnancy outcomes from three south Asian sites of the Global Network Maternal Newborn Health Registry: A retrospective cohort study.BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology · 2023Article
- Inclusion of child-relevant data in the development and validation of heat vulnerability indices: a commentary.Environmental research, health : ERH · 2023Article
- Planning to Reduce the Health Impacts of Extreme Heat: A Content Analysis of Heat Action Plans in Local United States Jurisdictions.American journal of public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Exposure to high ambient temperatures is an important cause of avoidable, premature death that may become more prevalent under climate change. Though extensive epidemiological data are available in the United States, they are largely limited to select large cities, and hence, most projections estimate the potential impact of future warming on a subset of the U.S. population. Here we utilize evaluations of the relative risk of premature death associated with temperature in 10 U.S. cities spanning a wide range of climate conditions to develop a generalized risk function. We first evaluate the performance of this generalized function, which introduces substantial biases at the individual city level but performs well at the large scale. We then apply this function to estimate the impacts of projected climate change on heat-related nationwide U.S. deaths under a range of scenarios. During the current decade, there are 12,000 (95% confidence interval 7,400-16,500) premature deaths annually in the contiguous United States, much larger than most estimates based on totals for select individual cities. These values increase by 97,000 (60,000-134,000) under the high-warming Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and by 36,000 (22,000-50,000) under the moderate RCP4.5 scenario by 2100, whereas they remain statistically unchanged under the aggressive mitigation scenario RCP2.6. These results include estimates of adaptation that reduce impacts by ~40-45% as well as population increases that roughly offset adaptation. The results suggest that the degree of climate change mitigation will have important health impacts on Americans.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.