ArticleJournal of global health2020
An application of ARIMA model for predicting total health expenditure in China from 1978-2022.
Article in Journal of global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed.
- From out-of-pocket to prepaid financing? projected health expenditure and financing mix in Egypt, 1995-2050.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2026Article
- Diagnosis-Related group payment and its impact on hospitalization costs and patient financial protection for neurointerventional stroke care in a Chinese tertiary hospital: a retrospective analysis.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2026Article
- Global burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to dietary risks in young adults, 1990-2021: trends and future projections.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Equity of total health expenditure in China, 2015-2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Assessing regional disparities and trends in health resource allocation from sub-provincial cities in China.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Critical analysis of the liver cancer policies and programs in China: implications for international liver cancer control.Global health research and policy · 2025Article
- Primary care quality of primary healthcare institutions in china: current status and influencing factors.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Article
- Worldwide burden and cross-regional health inequalities of high BMI-attributable colorectal cancer by gender from 1990 to 2021, with predictions through 2041.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Forecast of total health expenditure on China's ageing population: a system dynamics model.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Assessment of the COVID-19 impact on the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) financing: an analysis of the financing dynamics of 2020 and 2021.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Trends in under-five mortality rate in China, 1996-2020: a Joinpoint regression and correlation analysis.BMJ open · 2024Observational
- Epidemiology and SARIMA model of deaths in a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Identifying Influential Variables on Health Expenditure of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Countries.Iranian journal of public health · 2024Article
- Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Analysis of health expenditures in China from 2000 to 2019 compared with the world and upper-middle-income countries.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Hospitalization expenses of coronary heart disease inpatients in China: evidence from two hospitals in Ningxia Hui autonomous region.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Using COVID-19 Vaccine Attitudes on Twitter to Improve Vaccine Uptake Forecast Models in the United States: Infodemiology Study of Tweets.JMIR infodemiology · 2023Article
- Spatial-temporal trends in global childhood overweight and obesity from 1975 to 2030: a weight mean center and projection analysis of 191 countries.Globalization and health · 2023Article
- Regional disparities and influencing factors of high quality medical resources distribution in China.International journal for equity in health · 2023Article
- The burden of cardiovascular diseases attributable to metabolic risk factors and its change from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis and prediction.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundChina's health financing system has changed from the government-led mode under the planned economy to the diversified mode under the market economy. Equity in health financing has been a national health priority. This study aimed to predict changes in total health expenditure (THE), government health expenditure (GHE), social health expenditure (SHE) and out-of-pocket health expenditure (OOP) in China from 2018 to 2022, and to provide a theoretical basis for health policy adjustment.
methodsBased on health expenditure date of time series from 1978-2017, R3.5.1 software was used to construct the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
resultsThe model of THE, GHE, SHE and OOP are ARIMA (3.3.0), ARIMA (1.3.1), ARIMA (2.4.0), ARIMA (2.2.2). According to the simulation results, in 2022, China's THE is expected to reach 8473.00 billion Yuan, and the constituent ratios in GHE, SHE and OOP will be 25.49%, 51.25% and 23.26%, respectively. The proportion of THE to GDP will continuously increase from 2018-2022 at a reasonable pace, while THE itself will increase rapidly.
conclusionsChina should take effective measures to control the excessive growth of THE, keep decreasing the OOP percentage, and improve the efficiency and fairness of the use of health funds.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.