ArticleFrontiers in physiology2020
Long Term Adaptation to Heat Stress: Shifts in the Minimum Mortality Temperature in the Netherlands.
Article in Frontiers in physiology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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23 citing papers in PubMed, 87 citations in OpenAlex.
- Nationwide analysis of cases of emergency transport due to heatstroke in Japan from 2010 to 2024.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Changes in the thermal stress across Europe between 1940-2023.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- Temporal changes in the high-temperature-mortality association in the Netherlands and the potential impact of the implementation of the national heat plan.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2025Article
- Ramping up the Heat: Induction of Systemic and Pulmonary Immune Responses and Metabolic Adaptations in Mice.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Outpacing climate change: adaptation to heatwaves in Europe.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- Distributional outcomes of urban heat island reduction pathways under climate extremes.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health.Nature medicine · 2024Article
- Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2024Article
- Article
- The temporal change of heat exposure and adaptation capacity in Chinese adults from 1994 to 2023.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Climate change and health: rethinking public health messaging for wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- The practices of heat adaptation among elderly in Dezful: A qualitative study.Journal of education and health promotion · 2024Article
- Future Temperature-Related Deaths in the U.S.: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics, and Adaptation.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Territory Differences in Adaptation to Heat among Persons Aged 65 Years and Over in Spain (1983-2018).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Heat Adaptation among the Elderly in Spain (1983-2018).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Intraday adaptation to extreme temperatures in outdoor activity.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Trends in Temperature-associated Mortality in São Paulo (Brazil) between 2000 and 2018: an Example of Disparities in Adaptation to Cold and Heat.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2022Article
- An analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat-associated mortality threshold: towards a heat health warning system.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2022Article
- Northern Hemisphere Urban Heat Stress and Associated Labor Hour Hazard from ERA5 Reanalysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
It is essentially unknown how humans adapt or will adapt to heat stress caused by climate change over a long-term interval. A possible indicator of adaptation may be the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which is defined as the mean daily temperature at which the lowest mortality occurs. Another possible indicator may be the heat sensitivity, i.e., the percentage change in mortality per 1°C above the MMT threshold, or heat attributable fraction (AF), i.e., the percentage relative excess mortality above MMT. We estimated MMT and heat sensitivity/AF over a period of 23 years for older adults (≥65 years) in the Netherlands using three commonly used methods. These methods are segmented Poisson regression (SEG), constrained segmented distributed lag models (CSDL), and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The mean ambient temperature increased by 0.03°C/year over the 23 year period. The calculated mean MMT over the 23-year period differed considerably between methods [16.4 ± 1.2°C (SE) (SEG), 18.9 ± 0.5°C (CSDL), and 15.3 ± 0.4°C DLNM]. MMT increased during the observed period according to CSDL (0.11 ± 0.05°C/year) and DLNM (0.15 ± 0.02°C/year), but not with SEG. The heat sensitivity, however, decreased for the latter method (0.06%/°C/year) and did not change for CSDL. Heat AF was calculated for the DLNM method and decreased with 0.07%/year. Based on these results we conclude that the susceptibility of humans to heat decreases over time, regardless which method was used, because human adaptation is shown by either an increase in MMT (CSDL and DLNM) or a decrease in heat sensitivity for unchanged MMT (SEG). Future studies should focus on what factors (e.g., physiological, behavioral, technological, or infrastructural adaptations) influence human adaptation the most, so it can be promoted through adaptation policies. Furthermore, future studies should keep in mind that the employed method influences the calculated MMT, which hampers comparability between studies.
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