Trend Prediction for Cesarean Deliveries Based on Robson Classification System at a Tertiary Referral Unit of North India.

backgroundWorld Health Organization proposed use of Robson Classification as a global standard for assessing, maintaining and comparing Cesarean section (CS) rates. This paper aimed to examine CS trend at a tertiary center according to Robson Ten-Group Classification System (TGCS) over three-year period (2015-2017) and to predict future Cesarean trends.

methodsThis prospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary teaching institute and included 81,784 females who delivered at this hospital over three-year duration (2015-2017). The data compilation was done according to Robson TGCS. The main outcome measures were overall annual CS rates, Robson group-wise CS rates, future overall and Robson group-wise CS trend. These parameters were calculated, trend analysis was done and trend over future 3 years was predicted.

resultsThere were 81,784 deliveries (62,336 vaginal and 19,448 Cesarean deliveries) over the study period. The year-wise CS rate was 22.4%, 23.5% and 25.5%, respectively. The largest contribution was by group 5 followed by group 2 and group 1. Based on 3-year data, it was predicted that CS rate will increase by 0.905% annually over coming 3 years. In groups 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8, predicted trend value showed an annual increase by 0.65%, 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.05% and 0.10%, respectively; in groups 1, 2, 5, 9 and 10, it showed an annual decrease of 0.45%, 0.05%, 1.50%, 0.50% and 0.05%, respectively.

conclusionIncreasing CS rate trend was seen over last 3 years with a predicted rise of 0.905% per year. Robson groups 5, 2 and 1 were at present major contributors; however, the trend analysis predicted a decreasing trend. Trend analysis predicted annual increment in groups 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8 over next 3 years, thereby suggesting need to focus on these groups as well.