Combined systematic versus stand-alone multiparametric MRI-guided targeted fusion biopsy: nomogram prediction of non-organ-confined prostate cancer.

objectiveBased on unfavorable oncological and functional outcomes of non-organ-confined (NOC) prostate cancer (PCa), defined as ≥ pT3, pN1 or both, we aimed to develop a NOC prediction tool based on multiparametric MRI-guided targeted fusion biopsy (TBx). MATERIALS AND

methodsAnalyses were restricted to 594 patients with simultaneous PCa detection at systematic biopsy (SBx), TBx and subsequent radical prostatectomy (RP) at our institution. Development (n = 396; cohort 1) and validation cohorts (n = 198; cohort 2) were used to develop and validate the NOC nomogram. A head-to-head comparison was performed between stand-alone TBx model and combined TBx/SBx model. Second validation was performed in patients with positive TBx, but negative SBx (n = 193; cohort 3).

resultsThe most parsimonious TBx model included three independent predictors of NOC: pretreatment PSA (OR 1.05 95% CI: 1.01-1.08), highest TBx-detected Gleason pattern (3 + 3 [REF] vs. ≥ 4 + 5; OR 9.3 95% CI 3.8-22) and presence of TBx-detected perineural invasion (OR 2.2 95% CI: 1.3-3.6). The combined TBx/SBx model had the same predictors. For the stand-alone TBx and combined TBx/SBx model, external validation yielded accuracy of 76.5% (95% CI: 69.3-83.1) and 76.6% (95% CI: 69.4-83.6) within cohort 2. The external validation of the stand-alone TBx model yielded 72.4% (95% CI: 65.0-79.6) accuracy within cohort 3.

conclusionOur stand-alone TBx-based nomogram can identify PCa patients at the risk of NOC, using three simple variables, with the similar accuracy as the TBx/SBx-based model. It is non-inferior to combined TBx/SBx-based model and performs with sufficient accuracy in specific patients with positive TBx, but negative SBx.