ArticleScientific reports2020
Modelling the transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar in contrasting European scenarios.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 93 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamical modeling and analysis of the impact of zonal prevention and control under normalized management on African Swine Fever transmission in China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Adapting current protocols is necessary to eradicate the novel ASFV variant in the peri-urban wild boar population of Barcelona, Spain.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Genotype II Live-Attenuated ASFV Vaccine Bearing 24 Genes Deletion in 3 Independent Regions Is Able to Provide Complete Protection Against Homologous Lethal Challenge.FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · 2026Article
- Article
- Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Integrated Hunting Strategies for African Swine Fever Control in Wild Boar: A Comparative Review of Experiences in European Continent.Veterinary sciences · 2026Review
- Modeling the Spatiotemporal Spread and Control of African Swine Fever in the Republic of Korea Using a Patch-Based Stochastic Framework.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Early African Swine Fever Dynamics in Wild Boar After Reemergence in Catalonia, Spain: Surveillance-Based Estimates of Initial Spread.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Can public-domain datasets be leveraged to identify factors associated with the occurrence of African swine fever in europe?Acta veterinaria Scandinavica · 2025Article
- Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Temperature and pH dynamics during carcass decomposition and implications for disease management.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Assessment of hunters' awareness of African swine fever in Samara Oblast, the Russian federation.BMC veterinary research · 2025Article
- Testing a Susceptible Population Density Among Other Explanatory Factors of African Swine Fever Spread in Wild Boar Using the Russian Federation Data, 2007-2023.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Testing multiplexed anti-ASFV CRISPR-Cas9 in reducing African swine fever virus.Microbiology spectrum · 2024Article
- African swine fever in wild boar: investigating model assumptions and structure.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Biosecurity Insights from the United States Swine Health Improvement Plan: Analyzing Data to Enhance Industry Practices.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Identifying risk clusters for African swine fever in Korea by developing statistical models.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Structure and function of African swine fever virus proteins: Current understanding.Frontiers in microbiology · 2023Review
- Drone-Based Thermal Imaging in the Detection of Wildlife Carcasses and Disease Management.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
- Three Years of African Swine Fever in South Korea (2019-2021): A Scoping Review of Epidemiological Understanding.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a severe viral disease that is currently spreading among domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in large areas of Eurasia. Wild boar play a key role in the spread of ASF, yet despite their significance, little is known about the key mechanisms that drive infection transmission and disease persistence. A mathematical model of the wild boar ASF system is developed that captures the observed drop in population density, the peak in infected density and the persistence of the virus observed in ASF outbreaks. The model results provide insight into the key processes that drive the ASF dynamics and show that environmental transmission is a key mechanism determining the severity of an infectious outbreak and that direct frequency dependent transmission and transmission from individuals that survive initial ASF infection but eventually succumb to the disease are key for the long-term persistence of the virus. By considering scenarios representative of Estonia and Spain we show that faster degradation of carcasses in Spain, due to elevated temperature and abundant obligate scavengers, may reduce the severity of the infectious outbreak. Our results also suggest that the higher underlying host density and longer breeding season associated with supplementary feeding leads to a more pronounced epidemic outbreak and persistence of the disease in the long-term. The model is used to assess disease control measures and suggests that a combination of culling and infected carcass removal is the most effective method to eradicate the virus without also eradicating the host population, and that early implementation of these control measures will reduce infection levels whilst maintaining a higher host population density and in some situations prevent ASF from establishing in a population.
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