Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32245814›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020

Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.

Seyed M Moghadas, Affan Shoukat, Meagan C Fitzpatrick, Chad R Wells, Pratha Sah, Abhishek Pandey, Jeffrey D Sachs, Zheng Wang, Lauren A Meyers, Burton H Singer and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 254 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
254citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

254 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  11. System Models for Synchronous Strategies in Operational Healthcare Forecasting.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025
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194 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Seyed M MoghadasAgent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.
Affan ShoukatCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.
Meagan C FitzpatrickCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201.
Chad R WellsCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.ORCID 0000-0003-1370-8350
Pratha SahCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.
Abhishek PandeyCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.
Jeffrey D SachsCenter for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032.
Zheng WangDepartment of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.ORCID 0000-0002-8849-8549
Lauren A MeyersDepartment of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712.
Burton H SingerEmerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu.
Alison P GalvaniCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.

Funding

Impacts of Individual and Social Behavior on Influenza Dynamics and ControlU01GM087719 · NIGMS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2009 to 2018
$6.3M
Accelerating viral outbreak detection in US cities using mechanistic models, machine learning and diverse geospatial dataR01AI151176 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.9M
Mathematical modeling to optimize rotavirus vaccination in sub-Saharan AfricaK01AI141576 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE · PI FITZPATRICK, MEAGAN COLLEEN · 2019 to 2023
$649k
OLFACTORY RECEPTORSF32DC000190 · NIDCD · CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY · PI ZHANG, YINONG · 1995 to 1998
–
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI141576NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI151176NIDCD NIH HHS F32 DC000190NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM087719
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number

Indexed as

Coronavirus InfectionsDisease OutbreaksHospital Bed CapacityHospitalsIntensive Care UnitsPandemicsPatient Acceptance of Health CarePneumonia, ViralBetacoronavirusCOVID-19ForecastingHumansModels, TheoreticalPatient IsolationSARS-CoV-2Time Factorscritical care needhospitalizationSARS–CoV-2self-isolation

Identifiers

PMID32245814
PMCPMC7183199

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.