ArticleJournal of Korean medical science2020
School Opening Delay Effect on Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Korea: Based on Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Study.
Article in Journal of Korean medical science, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
45 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 108 citations in OpenAlex.
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemicThe Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Family and School Relationship during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- [Analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prediction Studies in the Republic of Korea].Jugan geon-gang gwa jilbyeong · 2025Review
- Persons in helping professions in social assistance facilities and their fears related to COVID-19 using the example of Poland and Spain.Health psychology report · 2025Article
- Article
- National trends in adolescents' mental health by income level in South Korea, pre- and post-COVID-19, 2006-2022.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Association between the COVID-19 pandemic and childhood development aged 30 to 36 months in South Korea, based on the National health screening program for infants and children database.BMC public health · 2024Article
- The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature.Yonsei medical journal · 2023Review
- Study on the virulence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID-19.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2022Article
- Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study.Journal of Korean medical science · 2022Article
- Review
- Predictors of COVID-19 preventive behaviours in a sample of the Turkish population.International journal of nursing practice · 2022Article
- A new threshold reveals the uncertainty about the effect of school opening on diffusion of Covid-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- School and community reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- School Virus Infection Simulator for customizing school schedules during COVID-19.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2022Article
- In-person school reopening and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave in Spain.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Article
- No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.Nature medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundNonpharmaceutical intervention strategy is significantly important to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. One of the interventions implemented by the government is a school closure. The Ministry of Education decided to postpone the school opening from March 2 to April 6 to minimize epidemic size. We aimed to quantify the school closure effect on the COVID-19 epidemic.
methodsThe potential effects of school opening were measured using a mathematical model considering two age groups: children (aged 19 years and younger) and adults (aged over 19). Based on susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, isolation and behavior-changed susceptible individuals are additionally considered. The transmission parameters were estimated from the laboratory confirmed data reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from February 16 to March 22. The model was extended with estimated parameters and estimated the expected number of confirmed cases as the transmission rate increased after school opening.
resultsAssuming the transmission rate between children group would be increasing 10 fold after the schools open, approximately additional 60 cases are expected to occur from March 2 to March 9, and approximately additional 100 children cases are expected from March 9 to March 23. After March 23, the number of expected cases for children is 28.4 for 7 days and 33.6 for 14 days.
conclusionThe simulation results show that the government could reduce at least 200 cases, with two announcements by the Ministry of education. After March 23, although the possibility of massive transmission in the children's age group is lower, group transmission is possible to occur.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.