Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32238216›Full record

ArticleInfection control and hospital epidemiology2020

Forecasting the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in China: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study.

Yuanyuan Gao, Zuqin Zhang, Wei Yao, Qi Ying, Cheng Long, Xinmiao Fu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Infection control and hospital epidemiology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. A Spreadsheet-Based Short Time Forecasting Method for the COVID-19 Pandemic.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2022
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Yuanyuan Gao *Provincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.
Zuqin Zhang *Provincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.
Wei YaoProvincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.
Qi YingDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas.
Cheng Long *Department of Orthopaedics, Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, China.
Xinmiao FuProvincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3361-6904

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak is ongoing in China. Here, Boltzmann function-based analyses reveal the potential total numbers of COVID-19 deaths: 3,260 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3187-3394) in China; 110 (95% CI, 109-112) in Hubei Province; 3,174 (95% CI, 3095-3270) outside Hubei; 2,550 (95% CI, 2494-2621) in Wuhan City; and 617 (95% CI, 607-632) outside Wuhan.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalBetacoronavirusChinaCitiesCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19ForecastingHumansPandemicsPneumonia, ViralRegression AnalysisSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID32238216
PMCPMC7163192

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.