Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32234805›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2020

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing.

Luca Ferretti, Chris Wymant, Michelle Kendall, Lele Zhao, Anel Nurtay, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, Michael Parker, David Bonsall, Christophe Fraser

Registry-linked trialOpen access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04847804 (Large-scale Population Screening of Pooled Viral Nucleic Acid Samples Using Concurrent Isothermal Amplification and Electrochemical Detection for Novel Infectious Diseases on a Disposable Chip), which is not on this map. Cited by 1,157 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1,157citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
662.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04847804 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

Large-scale Population Screening of Pooled Viral Nucleic Acid Samples Using Concurrent Isothermal Amplification and Electrochemical Detection for Novel Infectious Diseases on a Disposable Chip

TypeobservationalSponsorHong Kong University of Science and TechnologyRan2021 to 2024Enrolled200ConditionsCovid19
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1,157 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 2,625 citations in OpenAlex.

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  16. VIBES: A multiscale modeling approach integrating within-host and between-hosts dynamics in epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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1,097 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Luca Ferretti *Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7578-7301
Chris Wymant *Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9847-8226
Michelle KendallBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7344-7071
Lele ZhaoBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2807-1914
Anel NurtayBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7107-1656
Lucie Abeler-DörnerBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3662-4192
Michael ParkerWellcome Centre for Ethics and the Humanities and Ethox Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
David Bonsall *Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2187-0550
Christophe Fraser *Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. christophe.fraser@bdi.ox.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-2399-9657
University of Oxford · GBCentre for Human Genetics · GBWellcome Centre for Ethics and Humanities · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council G0800596Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact tracing needed to stop the epidemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 is spreading too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, it could be controlled if this process were faster, more efficient, and happened at scale. A contact-tracing app that builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without resorting to mass quarantines ("lockdowns") that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusCell PhoneMobile ApplicationsAlgorithmsAsymptomatic DiseasesBasic Reproduction NumberChinaContact TracingCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19EpidemicsHumansInfection ControlModels, TheoreticalPandemicsPneumonia, Viral

Identifiers

PMID32234805
PMCPMC7164555
OpenAlexW3013215798

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.