Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32234709›Full record

ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2020

Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Through Analysis of Google Trends Data in Iran: Data Mining and Deep Learning Pilot Study.

Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Seyed Mehdi Ayyoubzadeh, Hoda Zahedi, Mahnaz Ahmadi, Sharareh R Niakan Kalhori

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 144 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
144citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
51.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

144 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 411 citations in OpenAlex.

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  4. Increasing Women's Knowledge about HPV Using BERT Text Summarization: An Online Randomized Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
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84 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Seyed Mohammad AyyoubzadehDepartment of Health Information Management, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.ORCID 0000-0001-8450-7818
Seyed Mehdi AyyoubzadehDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-1356-449X
Hoda ZahediSchool of Health Management and Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.ORCID 0000-0002-7790-7415
Mahnaz AhmadiDepartment of Pharmaceutics, School of Pharmacy, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.ORCID 0000-0002-5225-7989
Sharareh R Niakan KalhoriDepartment of Health Information Management, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.ORCID 0000-0002-7577-1200
Tehran University of Medical Sciences · IRIran University of Medical Sciences · IRShahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences · IR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe recent global outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is affecting many countries worldwide. Iran is one of the top 10 most affected countries. Search engines provide useful data from populations, and these data might be useful to analyze epidemics. Utilizing data mining methods on electronic resources' data might provide a better insight into the COVID-19 outbreak to manage the health crisis in each country and worldwide.

objectiveThis study aimed to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Iran.

methodsData were obtained from the Google Trends website. Linear regression and long short-term memory (LSTM) models were used to estimate the number of positive COVID-19 cases. All models were evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation, and root mean square error (RMSE) was used as the performance metric.

resultsThe linear regression model predicted the incidence with an RMSE of 7.562 (SD 6.492). The most effective factors besides previous day incidence included the search frequency of handwashing, hand sanitizer, and antiseptic topics. The RMSE of the LSTM model was 27.187 (SD 20.705).

conclusionsData mining algorithms can be employed to predict trends of outbreaks. This prediction might support policymakers and health care managers to plan and allocate health care resources accordingly.

Indexed as

CoronavirusData MiningDeep LearningBetacoronavirusCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Disease OutbreaksFemaleHumansIncidenceIranMalePandemicsPilot ProjectsPneumonia, ViralRisk FactorscoronavirusCOVID-19Google Trendsincidencelinear regressionLSTMoutbreakpandemicpredictionpublic health

Identifiers

PMID32234709
PMCPMC7159058
OpenAlexW3013056994

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.