ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.
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Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 72 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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72citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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Who cites it
72 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
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- Measuring complex constructs in large-scale text with computational social mixed methods.Behavior research methods · 2026Article
- Advancing clinical psychology with improved doctoral training in science.Training and education in professional psychology · 2026Article
- Structured Inequality, Uncertain Lifespans: Demographic Perspectives on Predicting Individual-Level Longevity.Population and development review · 2026Article
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- Exploring Factors Associated with Physical Exercise Participation Among Chinese Adults Based on Explainable Machine Learning Methods.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- The descent of agamemnon and the disquietude of job: The death of agency as the spur of suicide.Psychological review · 2025Review
- Large language models predict cognition and education close to or better than genomics or expert assessment.Communications psychology · 2025Article
- Understanding the Heterogeneity of Maltreatment Effect: the Role of Temperamental Sensitivity.Research on child and adolescent psychopathology · 2025Article
- Cognitive predictors of mental health trajectories are mediated by inferior frontal and occipital development during adolescence.Molecular psychiatry · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal forecasting of opioid-related fatal overdoses: towards best practices for modeling and evaluation.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Marital status and risk of cardiovascular disease - a multi-analyst study in epidemiology.European journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Exploring the potential and limitations of deep learning and explainable AI for longitudinal life course analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Other Adults in the United States: Improving Survey Measures of Youths' Non-Parental Adult Relationships.Journal of marriage and the family · 2025Article
- Using machine learning to explore the efficacy of administrative variables in prediction of subjective-wellbeing outcomes in New Zealand.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Is Ockham's razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Review
- Reflections on adversarial collaboration from the adversaries: was it worth itTheory and society · 2025Article
- Explainable AI in medicine: challenges of integrating XAI into the future clinical routine.Frontiers in radiology · 2025Review
- The InterModel Vigorish (IMV) as a flexible and portable approach for quantifying predictive accuracy with binary outcomes.PloS one · 2025Article
12 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
112 authors.
Matthew J SalganikDepartment of Sociology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; mjs3@princeton.edu mclanaha@princeton.edu.
Ian LundbergDepartment of Sociology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.ORCID 0000-0002-1909-2270
Alexander T KindelDepartment of Sociology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Caitlin E AhearnDepartment of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Khaled Al-GhoneimHawaz, Riyadh 12363, Saudi Arabia.
Abdullah AlmaatouqSloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142.ORCID 0000-0002-8467-9123
Drew M AltschulMental Health Data Science Scotland, Department of Psychology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9JZ, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-7053-4209
Jennie E BrandDepartment of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Nicole Bohme CarnegieDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717.ORCID 0000-0001-7664-6682
Ryan James ComptonHuman Computer Interaction Lab, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064.
Debanjan DattaDiscovery Analytics Center, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Arlington, VA 22203.
Thomas DavidsonDepartment of Sociology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853.
Anna FilippovaGitHub, San Francisco, CA 94107.
Connor GilroyDepartment of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105.
Brian J GoodeSocial and Decision Analytics Laboratory, Fralin Life Sciences Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Arlington, VA 22203.
Eaman JahaniInstitute for Data, Systems and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Ridhi KashyapDepartment of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1JD, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0615-2868
Antje KirchnerProgram for Research in Survey Methodology, Survey Research Division, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.
Stephen McKaySchool of Social and Political Sciences, University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-5080-8417
Allison C MorganDepartment of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.ORCID 0000-0003-2926-2162
Alex PentlandMedia Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Kivan PolimisCenter for the Study of Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105.
Louis RaesDepartment of Economics, Tilburg School of Economics and Management, Tilburg University, 5037 AB Tilburg, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-2640-7493
Daniel E RigobonDepartment of Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Claudia V RobertsDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Diana M StanescuDepartment of Politics, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ, 08544.
Yoshihiko SuharaMedia Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Adaner UsmaniDepartment of Sociology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Erik H WangDepartment of Politics, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ, 08544.
Muna AdemDepartment of Sociology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405.
Abdulla AlhajriDepartment of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
Bedoor AlShebliComputational Social Science Lab, Social Science Division, New York University Abu Dhabi, 129188 Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Redwane AminBendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Ryan B AmosDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Lisa P ArgyleDepartment of Political Science, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602.ORCID 0000-0003-3109-2537
Livia Baer-BositisDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Moritz BüchiDepartment of Communication and Media Research, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, ZH-8050.ORCID 0000-0002-9202-889X
Bo-Ryehn ChungCenter for Statistics & Machine Learning, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
William EggertDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Gregory FalettoStatistics Group, Department of Data Sciences and Operations, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089.
Zhilin FanDepartment of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
Jeremy FreeseDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Tejomay GadgilCenter for Data Science, New York University, New York, NY 10011.
Josh GagnéDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Yue GaoDepartment of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
Andrew Halpern-MannersDepartment of Sociology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405.
Sonia P HashimDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Sonia HausenDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Guanhua HeDepartment of Molecular Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Kimberly HigueraDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Bernie HoganOxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3JS, United Kingdom.
Ilana M HorwitzGraduate School of Education, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305.
Lisa M HummelDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Naman JainDepartment of Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Kun JinDepartment of Computer Science, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210.ORCID 0000-0002-0118-1021
David JurgensSchool of Information, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.
Patrick KaminskiDepartment of Sociology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405.
Areg KarapetyanDepartment of Computer Science, Masdar Institute, Khalifa University, 127788 Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
E H KimDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Ben LeizmanDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Naijia LiuDepartment of Politics, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ, 08544.
Malte MöserDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Andrew E MackDepartment of Politics, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ, 08544.
Mayank MahajanDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Noah MandellDepartment of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Helge MarahrensDepartment of Sociology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405.
Diana Mercado-GarciaGraduate School of Education, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305.
Viola MoczDepartment of Neuroscience, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Katariina Mueller-GastellDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Ahmed MusseDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544.
Qiankun NiuBendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
William NowakDataiku, New York, NY 10010.
Hamidreza OmidvarDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Andrew OrDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Karen OuyangDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Katy M PintoDepartment of Sociology, California State University, Dominguez Hills, Carson, CA 90747.
Ethan PorterSchool of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052.
Kristin E PorterCenter for Data Insights, MDRC, Oakland, CA 94612.
Crystal QianDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Tamkinat RaufDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Anahit SargsyanSocial Science Division, New York University Abu Dhabi, 129188 Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Thomas SchaffnerDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Landon SchnabelDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Bryan SchonfeldDepartment of Politics, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ, 08544.
Ben SenderDepartment of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Jonathan D TangDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Emma TsurkovDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Austin van LoonDepartment of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
Onur VarolCenter for Complex Network Research, Northeastern University Networks Science Institute, Boston, MA 02115.ORCID 0000-0002-3994-6106
Xiafei WangSchool of Social Work, David B. Falk College of Sport and Human Dynamics, Syracuse University, NY 13244.
Zhi WangLuddy School of Informatics, Computing, & Engineering, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47408.
Julia WangDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Flora WangDepartment of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Samantha WeissmanDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Kirstie WhitakerThe Alan Turing Institute, London NW1 2DB, United Kingdom.
Maria K WoltersSchool of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AB, United Kingdom.
Wei Lee WoonDepartment of Marketplaces & Yield Data Science, Expedia Group, Seattle, WA 98119.
James WuDepartment of the Applied Statistics, Social Science, and Humanities, New York University, New York, NY 10003.
Catherine WuDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Kengran YangDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Jingwen YinDepartment of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
Bingyu ZhaoDepartment of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1PZ, United Kingdom.
Chenyun ZhuDepartment of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
Jeanne Brooks-GunnDepartment of Human Development, Teachers College, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
Barbara E EngelhardtDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Moritz HardtDepartment of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Dean KnoxDepartment of Politics, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ, 08544.
Karen LevyDepartment of Information Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853.
Arvind NarayananDepartment of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Brandon M StewartDepartment of Sociology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Duncan J WattsDepartment of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.ORCID 0000-0001-5005-4961
Sara McLanahanDepartment of Sociology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; mjs3@princeton.edu mclanaha@princeton.edu.
Funding
Fragile Families and the Transition to AdulthoodR01HD036916 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI Kathryn Edin, Jane Waldfogel · 1999 to 2026
$46.3MInfrastructure for Population Research at PrincetonR24HD047879 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI MASSEY, DOUGLAS S · 2004 to 2013
$7.3MScientific and Technical CoreP2CHD041022 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI HIRAM BELTRAN-SANCHEZ · 2016 to 2026
$6.9MScientific/Technical CoreP2CHD042828 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI SARA R. CURRAN · 2017 to 2026
$6.3MCALIFORNIA CENTER FOR POPULATION TRAINING PROGRAMT32HD007545 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI HIRAM BELTRAN-SANCHEZ, Megan M Sweeney · 2001 to 2026
$4.1MECONOMIC STATUS, PUBLIC POLICY, AND CHILD NEGLECTR01HD039135 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI PAXSON, CHRISTINA H · 2000 to 2004
$3.1MEpigenetic fine-mapping of cardiometabolic disease loci in the human liverR01HL133218 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI BROWN, CHRISTOPHER DAVID, ENGELHARDT, BARBARA · 2017 to 2020
$3.1MChild Care and Parental Employment in Fragile FamiliesR01HD040421 · NICHD · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY TEACHERS COLLEGE · PI BROOKS-GUNN, JEANNE · 2002 to 2006
$2.8MScientific and Technical Computing CoreP2CHD047879 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI SALGANIK, MATTHEW J. · 2014 to 2018
$2.0MFuture of Families and Child Wellbeing Study Summer Data WorkshopR25HD074544 · NICHD · COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK MORNINGSIDE · PI Amanda Geller, Julien O Teitler · 2013 to 2026
$1.5MFragile Families Summer Data Workshop 2012R25HD072818 · NICHD · COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK MORNINGSIDE · PI GARFINKEL, IRWIN, MINCY, RONALD BERNARD · 2011 to 2011
$82kMedical Research Council MC_PC_17209NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL133218NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD041022NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD042828NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD047879NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD036916NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD039135NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD040421NICHD NIH HHS R24 HD047879NICHD NIH HHS R25 HD072818NICHD NIH HHS R25 HD074544NICHD NIH HHS T32 HD007545
Abstract
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.
Indexed as
AdolescentChildChild, PreschoolCohort StudiesFamilyFemaleHumansInfantLifeMachine LearningMalePredictive Value of TestsSocial Scienceslife coursemachine learningmass collaborationprediction
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