Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32228064›Full record

Observational studyCirculation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes2020

Novel Risk Modeling Approach of Atrial Fibrillation With Restricted Mean Survival Times: Application in the Framingham Heart Study Community-Based Cohort.

Laila Staerk, Sarah R Preis, Honghuang Lin, Juan P Casas, Kathryn Lunetta, Lu-Chen Weng, Christopher D Anderson, Patrick T Ellinor, Steven A Lubitz, Emelia J Benjamin and 1 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract readObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
2.1field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

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  12. Incidence and Risk Assessment for Atrial Fibrillation at 5 Years: Hypertensive Diabetic Retrospective Cohort.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Laila StaerkNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Boston University's Framingham Heart Study, MA (L.S., S.R.P., H.L., E.J.B., L.T.).
Sarah R PreisNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Boston University's Framingham Heart Study, MA (L.S., S.R.P., H.L., E.J.B., L.T.).
Honghuang LinNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Boston University's Framingham Heart Study, MA (L.S., S.R.P., H.L., E.J.B., L.T.).
Juan P CasasMassachusetts Veterans Epidemiology Research and Information Center (MAVERIC), VA Boston Healthcare System (J.P.C.).
Kathryn LunettaDepartment of Biostatistics (S.R.P., K.L., L.T.), Boston University School of Public Health, MA.
Lu-Chen WengProgram in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA (L.-C.W., C.D.A., P.T.E., S.A.L.).
Christopher D AndersonProgram in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA (L.-C.W., C.D.A., P.T.E., S.A.L.).
Patrick T EllinorProgram in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA (L.-C.W., C.D.A., P.T.E., S.A.L.).
Steven A LubitzProgram in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA (L.-C.W., C.D.A., P.T.E., S.A.L.).
Emelia J BenjaminNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Boston University's Framingham Heart Study, MA (L.S., S.R.P., H.L., E.J.B., L.T.).
Ludovic TrinquartNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Boston University's Framingham Heart Study, MA (L.S., S.R.P., H.L., E.J.B., L.T.).
Boston University · USMassachusetts General Hospital · US

Funding

IDENTIFICATION OF COMMON GENETIC VARIANTS FOR ATRIAL FIBRILLATION AND PR INTERVALR01HL092577 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI BENJAMIN, EMELIA J., ELLINOR, PATRICK THOMAS · 2009 to 2025
$20.6M
ConProject-006U54HL120163 · NHLBI · AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION · PI BHATNAGAR, ARUNI, ROBERTSON, ROSE MARIE · 2018 to 2022
$18.8M
Sequencing Annotation and Functional Analysis in Risk of Intracerebral HemorrhageR01NS103924 · NINDS · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI ANDERSON, CHRISTOPHER DAVID · 2018 to 2022
$3.4M
Genomics of Cardiac ArrhythmiasR01HL139731 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI ELLINOR, PATRICK THOMAS · 2018 to 2022
$3.3M
AFGen Consortium: Atrial Fibrillation Genomics to Functional AnalysesR01HL128914 · NHLBI · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI BENJAMIN, EMELIA J., ELLINOR, PATRICK THOMAS · 2015 to 2018
$3.1M
Mentoring in Arrhythmia ResearchK24HL105780 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI ELLINOR, PATRICK THOMAS · 2011 to 2020
$1.2M
THE FRAMINGHAM HEART STUDY-N01HC25195-268025195-268025195N01HC025195 · HC · TRUSTEES OF BOSTON UNIVERSITY · PI WOLF, PHILIP A · 2002 to 2006
–
American Heart Association-American Stroke Association 18SFRN34150007NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500001CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500001INHLBI NIH HHS K24 HL105780NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC025195NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL092577NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL128914NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL139731NHLBI NIH HHS U54 HL120163NINDS NIH HHS R01 NS103924
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRisk prediction models for atrial fibrillation (AF) do not give information about when AF might develop. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) quantifies risk into the time domain. Our objective was to use RMST to re-express individualized AF risk predictions. METHODS AND

resultsWe included AF-free participants from the Framingham Heart Study community-based cohorts. We predicted new-onset AF over 10-year follow-up according to baseline covariates: age, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, antihypertensive treatment, diabetes mellitus, prevalent heart failure, and prevalent myocardial infarction. First, we fitted a Cox regression model and estimated the 10-year predicted risk of AF. Second, we fitted an RMST model and estimated the predicted mean time free of AF and alive over a time horizon of 10 years. We included 7586 AF-free participants contributing to 11 088 examinations (mean age 61±11 years, 44% were men). During 10-year follow-up, 822 participants developed AF. The Cox and RMST models were in agreement regarding the direction, strength, and statistical significance of associations for all covariates. Low (<5%), intermediate (5%-15%), and high (>15%) 10-year predicted risk of AF corresponded to predicted mean time alive and free of AF of 9.9, 9.6, and 8.8 years, respectively. A 60-year-old woman with a body mass index of 25 kg/m

conclusionsThe RMST can be used to develop risk prediction models to express results in a time scale. RMST may offer a complementary risk communication tool for AF in clinical practice.

Indexed as

AgedAge FactorsAtrial FibrillationComorbidityDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleHealth StatusHumansIncidenceMaleMassachusettsMiddle AgedPrevalenceRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSex Factorsatrial fibrillationblood pressurediabetes mellitusheart failuremyocardial infarction

Identifiers

PMID32228064
PMCPMC7176529
OpenAlexW3013850499

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.