ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2020
Waning of Measured Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Over Time: The Potential Contribution of Leaky Vaccine Effect.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Drug-Fc conjugate CD388 targets influenza virus neuraminidase and is broadly protective in mice.Nature microbiology · 2025Article
- Epidemiological patterns of influenza viruses among severe acute respiratory infection patients in Burkina Faso, 2016-2019: a surveillance study.The Pan African medical journal · 2025Article
- Effectiveness and durability of mRNA-1273 BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine (mRNA-1273.222) against SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/BA.5 and XBB sublineages.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Reduced Effectiveness of Repeat Influenza Vaccination: Distinguishing Among Within-Season Waning, Recent Clinical Infection, and Subclinical Infection.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Measuring the Vaccine Success Index: A Framework for Long-Term Economic Evaluation and Monitoring in the Case of Rotavirus Vaccination.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Estimating Influenza Illnesses Averted by Year-Round and Seasonal Campaign Vaccination for Young Children, Kenya.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
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- Spotlight influenza: Estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness in elderly people with assessment of residual confounding by negative control outcomes, Finland, 2012/13 to 2019/20.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021Article
- Waning Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations Among Adults, 2015-2016 to 2018-2019, United States Hospitalized Adult Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Influenza vaccine failure in the tropics: a retrospective cohort study of waning effectiveness.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSeveral observational studies have shown decreases in measured influenza vaccine effectiveness (mVE) during influenza seasons. One study found decreases of 6-11%/month during the 2011-2012 to 2014-2015 seasons. These findings could indicate waning immunity but could also occur if vaccine effectiveness is stable and vaccine provides partial protection in all vaccinees ("leaky") rather than complete protection in a subset of vaccinees. Since it is unknown whether influenza vaccine is leaky, we simulated the 2011-2012 to 2014-2015 influenza seasons to estimate the potential contribution of leaky vaccine effect to the observed decline in mVE.
methodsWe used available data to estimate daily numbers of vaccinations and infections with A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B viruses. We assumed that vaccine effect was leaky, calculated mVE as 1 minus the Mantel-Haenszel relative risk of vaccine on incident cases, and determined the mean mVE change per 30 days since vaccination. Because change in mVE was highly dependent on infection rates, we performed simulations using low (15%) and high (31%) total (including symptomatic and asymptomatic) seasonal infection rates.
resultsFor the low infection rate, decreases (absolute) in mVE per 30 days after vaccination were 2% for A/H1N1 and 1% for A/H3N2and B viruses. For the high infection rate, decreases were 5% for A/H1N1, 4% for A/H3, and 3% for B viruses.
conclusionsThe leaky vaccine bias could account for some, but probably not all, of the observed intraseasonal decreases in mVE. These results underscore the need for strategies to deal with intraseasonal vaccine effectiveness decline.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.