ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2020
The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. It is linked to trial NCT04487691 (Autologous Nebulized Platelet Lysate for Post COVID-19 Syndrome), which is not on this map. Cited by 927 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Autologous Nebulized Platelet Lysate for Post COVID-19 Syndrome
Who cites it
927 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Incorporating Social Determinants of Health in Infectious Disease Models: A Systematic Review of Guidelines.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Pooled it
- Does medical waste research during COVID-19 meet the challenge induced by the pandemic to waste management?Waste management & research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA · 2024Pooled it
- A social norms campaign based positive intervention aimed at promoting protective behaviours.Frontiers in public health · 2024Trial
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Counterfactual evaluation of elementary and secondary school policies in the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Post-Pandemic Resurgence and Seasonal Patterns of Influenza Viruses and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Arequipa, Peru (2021-2023).Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- COVID-19 transmission dynamics: age-specific patterns and super spreaders in South Korea.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Mobility-driven synthetic contact matrices as a scalable solution for real-time pandemic response modeling.Nature communications · 2026Article
- COVID-19 in Poland: potential associations with epidemiology, population and healthcare quality.Archives of medical science : AMS · 2026Article
- Flexible school attendance strategies for epidemic outbreaks: simulation-based decision support.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Public health interventions for developing resilience to contagious diseases: a system dynamics approach.Health care management science · 2025Article
- The interaction between population age structure and policy interventions on the spread of COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Antibacterial properties of novel transparent copper films: a potential new tool to reduce healthcare-associated infections in hospitals and healthcare facilities.BMC microbiology · 2025Article
- Changes in social contact patterns in Germany during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic - an analysis based on the COVIMOD study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Bangkok wastewater treatment plants and estimating infected population after fully opening the country in 2023, Thailand.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Representative national survey on drug use during the COVID-19 stay-at-home order in the USA.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Integrating fractional-order SEI1I2I3QCR model with awareness and non-pharmaceutical interventions for optimal COVID-19 pandemic.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of 'Disease X'.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Investigation of Perceived Stress During COVID-19 Pandemic Self-Isolation Periods.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Article
- Evolutionary game and simulation analysis of tripartite subjects in public health emergencies under government reward and punishment mechanisms.Scientific reports · 2025Article
867 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn December, 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, emerged in Wuhan, China. Since then, the city of Wuhan has taken unprecedented measures in response to the outbreak, including extended school and workplace closures. We aimed to estimate the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic, hoping to provide some insights for the rest of the world.
methodsTo examine how changes in population mixing have affected outbreak progression in Wuhan, we used synthetic location-specific contact patterns in Wuhan and adapted these in the presence of school closures, extended workplace closures, and a reduction in mixing in the general community. Using these matrices and the latest estimates of the epidemiological parameters of the Wuhan outbreak, we simulated the ongoing trajectory of an outbreak in Wuhan using an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model for several physical distancing measures. We fitted the latest estimates of epidemic parameters from a transmission model to data on local and internationally exported cases from Wuhan in an age-structured epidemic framework and investigated the age distribution of cases. We also simulated lifting of the control measures by allowing people to return to work in a phased-in way and looked at the effects of returning to work at different stages of the underlying outbreak (at the beginning of March or April).
findingsOur projections show that physical distancing measures were most effective if the staggered return to work was at the beginning of April; this reduced the median number of infections by more than 92% (IQR 66-97) and 24% (13-90) in mid-2020 and end-2020, respectively. There are benefits to sustaining these measures until April in terms of delaying and reducing the height of the peak, median epidemic size at end-2020, and affording health-care systems more time to expand and respond. However, the modelled effects of physical distancing measures vary by the duration of infectiousness and the role school children have in the epidemic.
interpretationRestrictions on activities in Wuhan, if maintained until April, would probably help to delay the epidemic peak. Our projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions could lead to an earlier secondary peak, which could be flattened by relaxing the interventions gradually. However, there are limitations to our analysis, including large uncertainties around estimates of R
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Health Data Research UK.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.