ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Drug resistance profile of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolated from pulmonary tuberculosis patients and their household contacts in central Ethiopia.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- High Mycobacterium bovis Exposure but Low IGRA Positivity in UK Farm Workers.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Article
- Unraveling tuberculosis patient cluster transmission chains: integrating WGS-based network with clinical and epidemiological insights.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies.Epidemics · 2023Article
- Quantifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission Dynamics Across Global Settings: A Systematic Analysis.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Characterizing tuberculosis transmission dynamics in high-burden urban and rural settings.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Quantifying superspreading for COVID-19 using Poisson mixture distributions.Scientific reports · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.