ArticleThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2020
Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 356 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
356 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
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- The Association Between Previous Influenza Vaccination and COVID-19 Infection Risk and Severity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.American journal of preventive medicine · 2022Pooled it
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- Study on the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and agent disease risk simulation model based on individual factors in Xi'an City.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Article
- State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Has the COVID-19 pandemic enhanced the capacity of rural public health emergency management? Evidence from Jiangsu Province of China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Investigation and analysis of rehabilitation therapists' current situation in Hunan province after the COVID-19 epidemic: a cross-sectional study.Frontiers in rehabilitation sciences · 2025Article
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- Cost-based COVID-19 vaccination and willingness to pay: A post-pandemic review.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Review
- Temporal contact patterns and the implications for predicting superspreaders and planning of targeted outbreak control.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Prevalence, under-reporting, and epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 in the Araguaína City of Brazil.PloS one · 2024Article
- Knowledge, perceptions and practices of COVID19 among the came-roonian population.Journal of public health in Africa · 2023Article
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- Evaluation of COVID-19 intervention policies in South Korea using the stochastic individual-based model.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Checkpoint Travel Numbers as a Proxy Variable in Population-Based Studies During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- A stochastic agent-based model to evaluate COVID-19 transmission influenced by human mobility.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- Psychological status of infertile men during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in China: a cross-sectional investigation.Basic and clinical andrology · 2023Article
- A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2023Article
- Predicting COVID-19 pandemic waves including vaccination data with deep learning.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
296 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSince the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan on Dec 31, 2019, 68 imported cases and 175 locally acquired infections have been reported in Singapore. We aimed to investigate options for early intervention in Singapore should local containment (eg, preventing disease spread through contact tracing efforts) be unsuccessful.
methodsWe adapted an influenza epidemic simulation model to estimate the likelihood of human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a simulated Singaporean population. Using this model, we estimated the cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 infections at 80 days, after detection of 100 cases of community transmission, under three infectivity scenarios (basic reproduction number [R
findingsFor the baseline scenario, when R
interpretationImplementing the combined intervention of quarantining infected individuals and their family members, workplace distancing, and school closure once community transmission has been detected could substantially reduce the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We therefore recommend immediate deployment of this strategy if local secondary transmission is confirmed within Singapore. However, quarantine and workplace distancing should be prioritised over school closure because at this early stage, symptomatic children have higher withdrawal rates from school than do symptomatic adults from work. At higher asymptomatic proportions, intervention effectiveness might be substantially reduced requiring the need for effective case management and treatments, and preventive measures such as vaccines.
fundingSingapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.
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