ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: Individual-level estimates of transmission and its spatiotemporal variation using a diffusion network approach.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Systematic review of evidence for the impact and effectiveness of the 1-3-7 strategy for malaria elimination.Malaria journal · 2024Pooled it
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Calibration of transmission-dynamic infectious disease models: A scoping review and reporting framework.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Mapping residual malaria transmission in Vietnam.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Estimating the impact of imported malaria on local transmission in a near elimination setting: a case study from Bhutan.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- Dynamics of Malaria Incidence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: Unveiling Rapid Growth Patterns and Forecasting Future Trends.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Article
- No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal and Seasonal Trends of Class A and B Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China: Retrospective Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Establishing and applying an adaptive strategy and approach to eliminating malaria: practice and lessons learnt from China from 2011 to 2020.Emerging microbes & infections · 2022Article
- Inferring person-to-person networks of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: are analyses of routine surveillance data up to the task?Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Inference of malaria reproduction numbers in three elimination settings by combining temporal data and distance metrics.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A retrospective analysis of malaria epidemiological characteristics in Yingjiang County on the China-Myanmar border.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In order to monitor progress towards malaria elimination, it is crucial to be able to measure changes in spatio-temporal transmission. However, common metrics of malaria transmission such as parasite prevalence are under powered in elimination contexts. China has achieved major reductions in malaria incidence and is on track to eliminate, having reporting zero locally-acquired malaria cases in 2017 and 2018. Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern underlying this decline, especially the relationship between locally-acquired and imported cases, can inform efforts to maintain elimination and prevent re-emergence. This is particularly pertinent in Yunnan province, where the potential for local transmission is highest. Using a geo-located individual-level dataset of cases recorded in Yunnan province between 2011 and 2016, we introduce a novel Bayesian framework to model a latent diffusion process and estimate the joint likelihood of transmission between cases and the number of cases with unobserved sources of infection. This is used to estimate the case reproduction number, Rc. We use these estimates within spatio-temporal geostatistical models to map how transmission varied over time and space, estimate the timeline to elimination and the risk of resurgence. We estimate the mean Rc between 2011 and 2016 to be 0.171 (95% CI = 0.165, 0.178) for P. vivax cases and 0.089 (95% CI = 0.076, 0.103) for P. falciparum cases. From 2014 onwards, no cases were estimated to have a Rc value above one. An unobserved source of infection was estimated to be moderately likely (p>0.5) for 19/ 611 cases and high (p>0.8) for 2 cases, suggesting very high levels of case ascertainment. Our estimates suggest that, maintaining current intervention efforts, Yunnan is unlikely to experience sustained local transmission up to 2020. However, even with a mean of 0.005 projected up to 2020, locally-acquired cases are possible due to high levels of importation.
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