Bayesian inference of chromatin structure ensembles from population-averaged contact data.

Mounting experimental evidence suggests a role for the spatial organization of chromatin in crucial processes of the cell nucleus such as transcription regulation. Chromosome conformation capture techniques allow us to characterize chromatin structure by mapping contacts between chromosomal loci on a genome-wide scale. The most widespread modality is to measure contact frequencies averaged over a population of cells. Single-cell variants exist, but suffer from low contact numbers and have not yet gained the same resolution as population methods. While intriguing biological insights have already been garnered from ensemble-averaged data, information about three-dimensional (3D) genome organization in the underlying individual cells remains largely obscured because the contact maps show only an average over a huge population of cells. Moreover, computational methods for structure modeling of chromatin have mostly focused on fitting a single consensus structure, thereby ignoring any cell-to-cell variability in the model itself. Here, we propose a fully Bayesian method to infer ensembles of chromatin structures and to determine the optimal number of states in a principled, objective way. We illustrate our approach on simulated data and compute multistate models of chromatin from chromosome conformation capture carbon copy (5C) data. Comparison with independent data suggests that the inferred ensembles represent the underlying sample population faithfully. Harnessing the rich information contained in multistate models, we investigate cell-to-cell variability of chromatin organization into topologically associating domains, thus highlighting the ability of our approach to deliver insights into chromatin organization of great biological relevance.