Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32189612›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene2020

Climate Variability and Malaria over West Africa.

Ibrahima Diouf, Belén Rodriguez Fonseca, Cyril Caminade, Wassila M Thiaw, Abdoulaye Deme, Andrew P Morse, Jacques-André Ndione, Amadou Thierno Gaye, Anta Diaw, Marie Khemesse Ngom Ndiaye

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Airport and luggage (Odyssean) malaria in Europe: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024
    Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Review
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Impact of Global Climate-Change on Ecology ofIranian journal of public health · 2025
    Review
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
  17. The Prevalence of HumanTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Ibrahima DioufNOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, Maryland.
Belén Rodriguez FonsecaInstituto de Geociencias IGEO, CSIC-UCM, Agencia Estatal del Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Madrid, Spain.
Cyril CaminadeNational Institute for Health Research [M1] (NIHR), Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Wassila M ThiawNOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, Maryland.
Abdoulaye DemeUnité de Formation et de Recherche de Sciences Appliquées et de Technologie, Université Gaston Berger, Saint Louis, Sénégal.
Andrew P MorseDepartment of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Jacques-André NdioneCentre de Suivi Écologique, Dakar, Sénégal.
Amadou Thierno GayeLaboratoire de Physique de L'Atmosphère et de L'Océan-Siméon Fongang, Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique de L'Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Sénégal.
Anta DiawGeneral Direction of Public Health, Ministry of Health and Social Action, Dakar, Senegal.
Marie Khemesse Ngom NdiayeGeneral Direction of Public Health, Ministry of Health and Social Action, Dakar, Senegal.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Malaria is a major public health problem in West Africa. Previous studies have shown that climate variability significantly affects malaria transmission. The lack of continuous observed weather station data and the absence of surveillance data for malaria over long periods have led to the use of reanalysis data to drive malaria models. In this study, we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) to simulate spatiotemporal variability of malaria in West Africa using daily rainfall and temperature from the following: Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20th CR), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (ERA20C), and interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Malaria case data from the national surveillance program in Senegal are used for model validation between 2001 and 2016. The warm temperatures found over the Sahelian fringe of West Africa can lead to high malaria transmission during wet years. The rainfall season peaks in July to September over West Africa and Senegal, and the malaria season lasts from September to November, about 1-2 months after the rainfall peak. The long-term trends exhibit interannual and decadal variabilities. The LMM shows acceptable performance in simulating the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. However, some discrepancies are found. These results are useful for decision-makers who plan public health and control measures in affected West African countries. The study would have substantial implications for directing malaria surveillance activities and health policy. In addition, this malaria modeling framework could lead to the development of an early warning system for malaria in West Africa.

Indexed as

ClimateAfrica, WesternHumansIncidenceMalariaPopulation SurveillanceRainSeasonsSenegalTemperature

Identifiers

PMID32189612
PMCPMC7204584

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.