Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32184203›Full record

ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2020

Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis.

Ken Wei Tan, Borame Sue Lee Dickens, Alex R Cook

2 registry-linked trialsOpen access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.0field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06119035 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2023, after this paper: background citation

Insulin Modelling Based on Plasma Glucose Measures Via a Minimally-Invasive Glucose Sensor

TypeinterventionalSponsorSingapore Institute of Food and Biotechnology InnovationRan2023 to 2024Enrolled20ConditionsPreDiabetesArmsSingle dose of 75 grams glucose in 200ml water
NCT06837428 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2023, after this paper: background citation

Peer Comparison-based Risk Communication (PRICOM): A Study Protocol to Evaluate the Feasibility of Delivering a Risk Communication Intervention in the Primary Care Setting for Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

TypeinterventionalSponsorSingHealth PolyclinicsRan2023 to 2024Enrolled40ConditionsDiabetes Type 2ArmsPeer comparison-based Risk Communication (PRICOM)
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 37 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Quality of life item banks for type 2 diabetes: psychometric evaluation and computerized adaptive testing simulations.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Ken Wei TanSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.ORCID 0000-0003-3224-4619
Borame Sue Lee DickensSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
Alex R CookSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore ephcar@nus.edu.sg.
National University of Singapore · SG

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveWe examined the effects of age, gender, and ethnicity on the risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and end-stage renal disease according to type 2 diabetes mellitus status among adults aged 40-79 in Singapore.

methodsA Bayesian inference framework was used to derive age-specific, gender-specific and ethnicity-specific prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus from the 2010 Singapore National Health Survey, and age-standardized gender and ethnicity-specific incidence rates of acute myocardial infarction, stroke and end-stage renal disease from the National Registry of Diseases Office. Population forecasts were used in tandem with incidence rates to project the future chronic disease burden until 2050.

resultsThe highest relative risk of acute myocardial infarction was observed in the youngest age group (aged 40-44), with higher relative risk for women (men: 4.3 (2.7-6.4); women: 16.9 (9.3-28.3)). A similar trend was observed for stroke (men: 6.5 (4.2-9.7); women: 10.7 (6.0-17.4)). For end-stage renal disease, the highest relative risk was for men aged 45-50 (11.8 (8.0-16.9)) and women aged 55-60 (16.4 (10.7-24.0)). The annual incidence of acute myocardial infarction is projected to rise from 9300 (in 2019) to 16 400 (in 2050), the number of strokes from 7300 to 12 800, and the number of end-stage renal disease cases from 1700 to 2700.

conclusionsType 2 diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of complications and is modulated by age and gender. Prevention and early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus can reduce the increasing burden of secondary complications.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsBayes TheoremCost of IllnessDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleHumansKidney Failure, ChronicMaleMiddle AgedMyocardial InfarctionSex FactorsSingaporeStrokebiostatisticschronic diabetic complicationsdisease modeling

Identifiers

PMID32184203
PMCPMC7076230
OpenAlexW3012422352

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.