ArticlePsychological medicine2021
The jumping to conclusions reasoning bias as a cognitive factor contributing to psychosis progression and persistence: findings from NEMESIS-2.
Article in Psychological medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Jumping to Conclusions in First-Episode Psychosis and Bipolar Disorder.Early intervention in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Jumping to conclusions bias in early psychosis: Relationships with symptom dimensions, neurocognition and social cognition.Schizophrenia research. Cognition · 2026Article
- Suicide Prevention Measures at High-Risk Locations: A Goal-Directed Motivation Perspective.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Evaluation of a brief online multi-index assessment for predicting increased psychotic-like experiences in the community: A perceptual, cognitive and affective approach.Schizophrenia research. Cognition · 2025Article
- Understanding Pathways from Cognitive Biases to the Risk of Psychosis: A Network Analysis Approach.Psychology research and behavior management · 2025Article
- The journey within: mental navigation as a novel framework for understanding psychotherapeutic transformation.BMC psychiatry · 2024Article
- Relationship between jumping to conclusions and clinical outcomes in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis.Psychological medicine · 2022Article
- Differences between delusional disorder and schizophrenia: A mini narrative review.World journal of psychiatry · 2022Review
- Investigating the acceptability and validity of a novel VR paradigm that simulates auditory hallucinations.International journal of clinical and health psychology : IJCHPArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundContemporary models of psychosis implicate the importance of affective dysregulation and cognitive factors (e.g. biases and schemas) in the development and maintenance of psychotic symptoms, but studies testing proposed mechanisms remain limited. This study, uniquely using a prospective design, investigated whether the jumping to conclusions (JTC) reasoning bias contributes to psychosis progression and persistence.
methodsData were derived from the second Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-2). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview and an add-on instrument were used to assess affective dysregulation (i.e. depression, anxiety and mania) and psychotic experiences (PEs), respectively. The beads task was used to assess JTC bias. Time series analyses were conducted using data from T1 and T2 (N = 8666), excluding individuals who reported high psychosis levels at T0.
resultsAlthough the prospective design resulted in low statistical power, the findings suggest that, compared to those without symptoms, individuals with lifetime affective dysregulation were more likely to progress from low/moderate psychosis levels (state of 'aberrant salience', one or two PEs) at T1 to high psychosis levels ('frank psychosis', three or more PEs or psychosis-related help-seeking behaviour) at T2 if the JTC bias was present [adj. relative risk ratio (RRR): 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8-18.6, p = 0.101]. Similarly, the JTC bias contributed to the persistence of high psychosis levels (adj. RRR: 12.7, 95% CI 0.7-239.6, p = 0.091).
conclusionsWe found some evidence that the JTC bias may contribute to psychosis progression and persistence in individuals with affective dysregulation. However, well-powered prospective studies are needed to replicate these findings.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.