ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2020
Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modelling anti-Ov16 seroprevalence for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Modelling of onchocerciasis-associated skin and ocular disease and the impact of ivermectin treatment.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Reaching elimination of onchocerciasis transmission with long-term vector control and ivermectin treatment in Togo.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Usability, acceptability, and cost of the SD BIOLINE Ov16 rapid diagnostic test for onchocerciasis surveillance in endemic communities in the middle belt of Ghana.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Modelling transmission thresholds and hypoendemic stability for onchocerciasis elimination.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Comparison of diagnostic tools to assess the feasibility of programmatic use of rapid diagnostic tests for onchocerciasis: A dataset from Gabon.Data in brief · 2024Article
- Integrated Serosurveillance for Onchocerciasis, Lymphatic Filariasis, and Schistosomiasis in North Darfur, Sudan.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Onchocerciasis: Target product profiles of in vitro diagnostics to support onchocerciasis elimination mapping and mass drug administration stopping decisions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Demographic patterns of human antibody levels to Simulium damnosum s.l. saliva in onchocerciasis-endemic areas: An indicator of exposure to vector bites.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Scaling-Down Mass Ivermectin Treatment for Onchocerciasis Elimination: Modeling the Impact of the Geographical Unit for Decision Making.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Unusual Localization of Blood-Borne Loa loa Microfilariae in the Skin Depends on Microfilarial Density in the Blood: Implications for Onchocerciasis Diagnosis in Coendemic Areas.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- How does onchocerciasis-related skin and eye disease in Africa depend on cumulative exposure to infection and mass treatment?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Human immune response against salivary antigens of Simulium damnosum s.l.: A new epidemiological marker for exposure to blackfly bites in onchocerciasis endemic areas.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- The impact of mass drug administration expansion to low onchocerciasis prevalence settings in case of connected villages.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases.Gates open research · 2021Article
- When, Who, and How to Sample: Designing Practical Surveillance for 7 Neglected Tropical Diseases as We Approach Elimination.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
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7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.
methodsThe individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.
resultsWhen assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged <10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5-14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.
conclusionsSelecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.
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