ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020
The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 108 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
108 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- Factors Associated with the Implementation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Reducing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- The management of surgical patients during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.Surgery · 2020Pooled it
- Staying Physically Active During the Quarantine and Self-Isolation Period for Controlling and Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Overview of the Literature.Frontiers in psychology · 2020Pooled it
- A prediction approach to COVID-19 time series with LSTM integrated attention mechanism and transfer learning.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Assessing Immediate and Lasting Impacts of COVID-19-Induced Isolation on Green Space Usage Patterns.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Understanding underlying physical mechanism reveals early warning indicators and key elements for adaptive infections disease networks.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's disease in Chile: an analysis of panel data for 16 regions, 2017-2022.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Studying the impacts of variant evolution for a generalized age-group transmission model.PloS one · 2024Article
- Combining the dynamic model and deep neural networks to identify the intensity of interventions during COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Psychological Reactions during and after a Lockdown: Self-Efficacy as a Protective Factor of Mental Health.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination: modelling, analysis and simulations.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Modelling the pulse population-wide nucleic acid screening in mitigating and stopping COVID-19 outbreaks in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- How Asymptomatic Transmission Influences Mitigation and Suppression Strategies during a Pandemic.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Changing face of socio-economic vulnerability and COVID-19: An analysis of country wealth during the first two years of the pandemic.PloS one · 2023Article
- COVID-19 isolation/quarantine rules in home care patients.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Attention based parameter estimation and states forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic using modified SIQRD Model.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays.Results in physics · 2022Article
48 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesSince January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult.
methodsSince the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases.
resultsResults show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models.
conclusionsThe uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.
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