ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
Modelling the epidemiology of residual Plasmodium vivax malaria in a heterogeneous host population: A case study in the Amazon Basin.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Population heterogeneity in Plasmodium vivax relapse risk.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Trial
- Infected host competence overshadows heterogeneity in susceptibility in shaping experimental epizootics.Ecology · 2026Article
- Frequent and genetically diverseResearch square · 2026Article
- How Duffy Blood Group (FY) Polymorphism and Age Modulate Vivax Malaria Risk at the Community Level: A Population-based Retrospective Cohort Study in the Amazon.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Article
- Infected host competence overshadows heterogeneity in susceptibility in shaping experimental epizootics.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- How CYP2D6 Polymorphism Modulates the Community-Wide Risk of Plasmodium vivax Infection: A Panel Study in Amazonian Brazil.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- The probability of Plasmodium vivax acute illness following primary infection and relapse in Papua New Guinea.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- An integrative review of the combined use of mathematical and statistical models for estimating malaria transmission parameters.Malaria journal · 2025Review
- From bites to bytes: understanding how and why individual malaria risk varies using artificial intelligence and causal inference.Frontiers in genetics · 2025Article
- Detecting and quantifying heterogeneity in susceptibility using contact tracing data.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Individual variation in Plasmodium vivax malaria risk: Are repeatedly infected people just unlucky?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Review
- Host movement, transmission hot spots, and vector-borne disease dynamics on spatial networks.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Malaria Resilience in South America: Epidemiology, Vector Biology, and Immunology Insights from the Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research Network in Peru and Brazil.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2022Article
- Evidence-Based Malaria Control and Elimination in the Amazon: Input from the International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research Network in Peru and Brazil.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2022Review
- Relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic infections toLancet regional health. Americas · 2022Article
- Reaching the malaria elimination goal in Brazil: a spatial analysis and time-series study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- Article
- Monitoring Plasmodium vivax resistance to antimalarials: Persisting challenges and future directions.International journal for parasitology. Drugs and drug resistance · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The overall malaria burden in the Americas has decreased dramatically over the past two decades, but residual transmission pockets persist across the Amazon Basin, where Plasmodium vivax is the predominant infecting species. Current elimination efforts require a better quantitative understanding of malaria transmission dynamics for planning, monitoring, and evaluating interventions at the community level. This can be achieved with mathematical models that properly account for risk heterogeneity in communities approaching elimination, where few individuals disproportionately contribute to overall malaria prevalence, morbidity, and onwards transmission. Here we analyse demographic information combined with routinely collected malaria morbidity data from the town of Mâncio Lima, the main urban transmission hotspot of Brazil. We estimate the proportion of high-risk subjects in the host population by fitting compartmental susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) transmission models simultaneously to age-stratified vivax malaria incidence densities and the frequency distribution of P. vivax malaria attacks experienced by each individual over 12 months. Simulations with the best-fitting SIS model indicate that 20% of the hosts contribute 86% of the overall vivax malaria burden. Despite the low overall force of infection typically found in the Amazon, about one order of magnitude lower than that in rural Africa, high-risk individuals gradually develop clinical immunity following repeated infections and eventually constitute a substantial infectious reservoir comprised of asymptomatic parasite carriers that is overlooked by routine surveillance but likely fuels onwards malaria transmission. High-risk individuals therefore represent a priority target for more intensive and effective interventions that may not be readily delivered to the entire community.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.