ArticlePloS one2020
Sensitivity, uncertainty and identifiability analyses to define a dengue transmission model with real data of an endemic municipality of Colombia.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Dengue in Cebu City, Philippines: A Pilot Study of Predictive Models and Visualizations for Public Health.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- A discrete model for the evaluation of public policies: The case of Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS one · 2023Article
- The Influence of Anthropogenic and Environmental Disturbances on Parameter Estimation of a Dengue Transmission Model.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Dengue disease is a major problem for public health surveillance entities in tropical and subtropical regions having a significant impact not only epidemiological but social and economical. There are many factors involved in the dengue transmission process. We can evaluate the importance of these factors through the formulation of mathematical models. However, the majority of the models presented in the literature tend to be overparameterized, with considerable uncertainty levels and excessively complex formulations. We aim to evaluate the structure, complexity, trustworthiness, and suitability of three models, for the transmission of dengue disease, through different strategies. To achieve this goal, we perform structural and practical identifiability, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to these models. The results showed that the simplest model was the most appropriate and reliable when the only available information to fit them is the cumulative number of reported dengue cases in an endemic municipality of Colombia.
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