ArticleGlobal health research and policy2020
First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model.
Article in Global health research and policy, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Neurological manifestations of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of proportions.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2020Pooled it
- Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence.PloS one · 2020Pooled it
- Article
- Experiences and perceptions of migrant populations in South Africa on COVID-19 immunization: an interpretative phenomenological analysis.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Mathematical analysis of the impact of the media coverage in mitigating the outbreak of COVID-19.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Adoption of measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19: In search of a Hofstedian explanation for patterns among individual countries and country clusters.Safety science · 2023Article
- Impacts of COVID-19 Restrictions on Regional and Local Air Quality Across Selected West African Cities.GeoHealth · 2022Article
- SQEIR: An epidemic virus spread analysis and prediction model.Computers & electrical engineering : an international journal · 2022Article
- Predicting COVID-19 Infections in Eswatini Using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Biology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the humoral immunoresponse: a systematic review of evidence to support global policy-level actions and research.Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Review
- Complex behavior of COVID-19's mathematical model.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Queueing Theory and COVID-19 Prevention: Model Proposal to Maximize Safety and Performance of Vaccination Sites.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Neuroinvasion, Inflammatory Neurodegeneration and Alzheimer's Disease.Frontiers in cellular neuroscience · 2022Article
- Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination behaviour in Latvian population: cross-sectional study.Health psychology and behavioral medicine · 2022Article
- The association between peritraumatic distress, perceived stress, depression in pregnancy, and NR3C1 DNA methylation among Chinese pregnant women who experienced COVID-19 lockdown.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Article
- Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Expanded Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing in Massachusetts.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Mathematical epidemiologic and simulation modelling of first wave COVID-19 in Malaysia.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- The Impact of COVID-19 on Otolaryngology Community Practice in Massachusetts.Otolaryngology--head and neck surgery : official journal of American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Similar to outbreaks of many other infectious diseases, success in controlling the novel 2019 coronavirus infection requires a timely and accurate monitoring of the epidemic, particularly during its early period with rather limited data while the need for information increases explosively. Methods: In this study, we used a second derivative model to characterize the coronavirus epidemic in China with cumulatively diagnosed cases during the first 2 months. The analysis was further enhanced by an exponential model with a close-population assumption. This model was built with the data and used to assess the detection rate during the study period, considering the differences between the true infections, detectable and detected cases. Results: Results from the second derivative modeling suggest the coronavirus epidemic as nonlinear and chaotic in nature. Although it emerged gradually, the epidemic was highly responsive to massive interventions initiated on January 21, 2020, as indicated by results from both second derivative and exponential modeling analyses. The epidemic started to decelerate immediately after the massive actions. The results derived from our analysis signaled the decline of the epidemic 14 days before it eventually occurred on February 4, 2020. Study findings further signaled an accelerated decline in the epidemic starting in 14 days on February 18, 2020. Conclusions: The coronavirus epidemic appeared to be nonlinear and chaotic, and was responsive to effective interventions. The methods used in this study can be applied in surveillance to inform and encourage the general public, public health professionals, clinicians and decision-makers to take coordinative and collaborative efforts to control the epidemic.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.