ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2020
The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application.
Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 10 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 2,730 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Passive Immunity Trial for Our Nation (PassItOn)
Trial of Early Therapies During Non-hospitalized Outpatient Window (TREAT NOW) for COVID-19
Prevention of COVID19 Infection by the Administration of Hydroxychloroquine to Institutionalized Older People and Nursing Home Staff. Controlled Clinical Trial, Randomized Triple Blind by Clusters (PREVICHARM Study)
Treatment of Severe and Critical COVID-19 Pneumonia With Convalescent Plasma
Treatment of Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) With Convalescent Plasma Collected From Individuals With Documented Infection and Recovery From COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)
A Decentralized, Prospective Study Exploring the Relationship Between Passively-collected Data From Wearable Activity Devices and SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Rapid Development and Implementation of a Remote ECG-monitored Prospective Randomized Clinical Trial During a Pandemic: Hydroxychloroquine Prophylaxis in COVID-19 Household Contacts
Lung Ultrasound in COVID-19 Infection Screening for Patients With Indication of Emergency Surgery
High-Dose Ivermectin for Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19 - The (HD)IVACOV Trial
Community-engaged Approaches to Testing in Community and Healthcare Settings for Underserved Populations
Who cites it
2,730 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies in reducing COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Workplace interventions to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection outside of healthcare settings.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Antiplatelet agents for the treatment of adults with COVID-19.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Pooled it
- Convalescent plasma for people with COVID-19: a living systematic review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Pooled it
- Post-exposure prophylaxis with SA58 (anti-SARS-COV-2 monoclonal antibody) nasal spray for the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 in healthy adult workers: a randomized, single-blind, placebo-controlled clinical study.Emerging microbes & infections · 2023Trial
- Generation time in a discrete epidemic model with asymptomatic carriers: beyond geometric waiting times.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- The toll of voting in a pandemic? Regional elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- Transmission of mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants is favored by relatively prolonged infections due to delayed immunity.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- The paradox of neglecting changes in behavior: How standard epidemic models misestimate both transmissibility and final epidemic size.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Inferring Seasonal Modulation of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility from Cross-Country Environmental and Population-Level Predictors.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Pentoxifylline in patients with COVID-19 and with liver cirrhosis or metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: Emerging insights.Biomedical reports · 2026Article
- Machine learning and probabilistic approaches for forecasting infectious disease transmission and cases.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2026Article
- Mast cells release DNA Extracellular Traps (DETs) in response to SARS-CoV-2 and its spike protein.Cell communication and signaling : CCS · 2026Article
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Enhancing randomized controlled trials through smartwatch-guided participant matching for infectious disease outcomes.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Differential association of fluticasone furoate and budesonide with clinically detected COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study.BMJ open respiratory research · 2026Article
- Lessons from Two Early COVID-19 Hospital Outbreaks in Germany to Inform Strategies for Controlling Emerging Nosocomial Outbreaks of Highly Transmissible Respiratory Viruses.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- A compartmental model of variant coexistence, dynamics and dominance in infectious diseases: Case for SARS-CoV-2 in Abu Dhabi.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Modeling and Simulation of the Role of Mass Testing in Controlling COVID-19.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
2,670 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundA novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveillance and control activities.
objectiveTo estimate the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and describe its public health implications.
designPooled analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between 4 January 2020 and 24 February 2020.
settingNews reports and press releases from 50 provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China.
participantsPersons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection outside Hubei province, China. MEASUREMENTS: Patient demographic characteristics and dates and times of possible exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and hospitalization.
resultsThere were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. LIMITATION: Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases.
conclusionThis work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.