ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2021
Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Vaccination strategies against wild poliomyelitis in polio-free settings: outbreak risk modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- The impact of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on global polio eradication.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Modeling scenarios for ending poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation.Gates open research · 2023Article
- Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Updated Characterization of Post-OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
- Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Updated Characterization of Outbreak Response Strategies for 2019-2029: Impacts of Using a Novel Type 2 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Strain.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are….Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
- Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Many countries use supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to keep their population immunity to transmission high using preventive, planned SIAs (pSIAs) and outbreaks response SIAs (oSIAs). Prior studies suggested that investment in pSIAs saved substantial health and financial costs due to avoided outbreaks. However, questions remain about the benefits of SIAs, particularly with the recent introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization in all OPV-using countries. The mounting costs of polio eradication activities and the need to respond to oSIAs threatens the use of limited financial resources for pSIAs, including in the remaining countries with endemic transmission of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) (i.e., Pakistan and Afghanistan). A recent updated global poliovirus transmission model suggested that the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) is not on track to stop transmission of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We use the updated global model to explore the role of pSIAs to achieve WPV1 eradication. We find that unless Pakistan and Afghanistan manage to increase the quality of bivalent OPV (bOPV) pSIAs, which we model as intensity (i.e., sufficiently high-coverage bOPV pSIAs that reach missed children), the model does not lead to successful eradication of WPV1. Achieving WPV1 eradication, the global objectives of the GPEI, and a successful polio endgame depend on effective and sufficient use of OPV. IPV use plays a negligible role in stopping transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan and most other countries supported by the GPEI, and more IPV use will not help to stop transmission.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.