ArticleBMC geriatrics2020
Clinically useful prediction of hospital admissions in an older population.
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05706272 (Secure And Focused Primary Care for Older pEople), which is not on this map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Secure And Focused Primary Care for Older pEople (SAFE) - A Proactive Trial
Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 57 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prediction models for the prediction of unplanned hospital admissions in community-dwelling older adults: A systematic review.PloS one · 2022Pooled it
- Effects of proactive healthcare on pain, physical and activities of daily living functioning in vulnerable older adults with chronic pain: a pragmatic clinical trial with one- and two-year follow-up.European geriatric medicine · 2024Trial
- Dizziness in older persons at high risk of future hospitalization: prevalence, differences between those with and without dizziness, and effect of a proactive primary care intervention.BMC geriatrics · 2022Trial
- Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Admissions Among Older Adults With and Without Dementia Receiving Medicaid-Funded Home- and Community-Based Services.Journal of applied gerontology : the official journal of the Southern Gerontological Society · 2026Article
- The effect of frailty on hospitalisation trajectories in adults aged 65 and older across 10 European countries: a 14-year longitudinal analysis from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).European journal of ageing · 2026Article
- Protocol for the 'Beyond 50' prospective observational cohort study: investigating the impact of physical and psychosocial factors on healthy ageing.BMC public health · 2025Observational
- Observational
- Evaluation of emergency medical responses to nursing homes in a local area of Germany.BMC emergency medicine · 2025Article
- Vulnerable older people's views on proactive care planning: a qualitative interview study in primary care.BJGP open · 2025Article
- Role of primary and secondary care data in atrial fibrillation ascertainment: impact on risk factor associations, patient management, and mortality in UK Biobank.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025Article
- Hospitalisations for non-specific low back pain in people presenting to South Australian public hospital emergency departments.Emergency medicine Australasia : EMA · 2025Observational
- Association between frailty and pain in older people at high risk of future hospitalization.Frontiers in pain research (Lausanne, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Predicting Multiple Outcomes Associated with Frailty based on Imbalanced Multi-label Classification.Journal of healthcare informatics research · 2024Article
- Article
- Predicting Outcomes in Frail Older Community-Dwellers in Western Australia: Results from the Community Assessment of Risk Screening and Treatment Strategies (CARTS) Programme.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Thanks for hearing me: key elements of primary care according to older patients.Scandinavian journal of primary health care · 2024Article
- Reasons for hospitalisation and cumulative mortality in people, 75 years or older, at high risk of hospital admission: a prospective study.BMC geriatrics · 2024Observational
- The role of geriatric syndromes in predicting unplanned hospitalizations: a population-based study using Minimum Data Set for Home Care.BMC geriatrics · 2023Article
- Asthma-related emergency admissions and associated healthcare resource use in Alberta, Canada.BMJ open respiratory research · 2023Article
- Trustful conversations: a qualitative interview study on older patients' experiences of the interventionPrimary health care research & development · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe healthcare for older adults is insufficient in many countries, not designed to meet their needs and is often described as disorganized and reactive. Prediction of older persons at risk of admission to hospital may be one important way for the future healthcare system to act proactively when meeting increasing needs for care. Therefore, we wanted to develop and test a clinically useful model for predicting hospital admissions of older persons based on routine healthcare data.
methodsWe used the healthcare data on 40,728 persons, 75-109 years of age to predict hospital in-ward care in a prospective cohort. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify significant factors predictive of unplanned hospital admission. Model fitting was accomplished using forward selection. The accuracy of the prediction model was expressed as area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, AUC.
resultsThe prediction model consisting of 38 variables exhibited a good discriminative accuracy for unplanned hospital admissions over the following 12 months (AUC 0.69 [95% confidence interval, CI 0.68-0.70]) and was validated on external datasets. Clinically relevant proportions of predicted cases of 40 or 45% resulted in sensitivities of 62 and 66%, respectively. The corresponding positive predicted values (PPV) was 31 and 29%, respectively.
conclusionA prediction model based on routine administrative healthcare data from older persons can be used to find patients at risk of admission to hospital. Identifying the risk population can enable proactive intervention for older patients with as-yet unknown needs for healthcare.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.