ArticleJournal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999)2020
Understanding the HIV Epidemic Among MSM in Baltimore: A Modeling Study Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions and Who Acquired and Contributed to Infections.
Article in Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- The COMEBACK Study: Social Determinants of Health Impact on Virologic Suppression in a 48-Week Low-Barrier-Care Study of Rapid Antiretroviral Therapy Reinitiation Among Persons With HIV Lost to Care.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Trial
- Evaluating the impact of point-of-care HIV viral load assessment on linkage to care in Baltimore, MD: a randomized controlled trial.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Trial
- Racial Disparities in HIV Prevalence, Testing, and Care Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Baltimore from 2008 to 2023: Fifteen Years of HIV Behavioral Surveillance.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Article
- Abuse in the Continua: HIV Prevention and Care Outcomes and Syndemic Conditions Associated with Intimate Partner Violence Among Black Gay and Bisexual Men in the Southern United States.AIDS and behavior · 2022Article
- Article
- Past dynamics of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Montréal, Canada: a mathematical modeling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Community engagement and linkage to care efforts by peer community-health workers to increase PrEP uptake among sexual minority men.Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.) · 2021Observational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 11 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionMen who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States are disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the impact of past interventions and contribution of different population groups to incident MSM HIV infections.
settingBaltimore, US.
methodsWe used a deterministic model, parameterized and calibrated to demographic and epidemic Baltimore MSM data, to estimate the fraction of HIV infections among MSM averted by condoms and antiretroviral therapy (ART) over 1984-2017 and the fraction of infections acquired and transmission contributed by MSM from different demographic groups and disease and care continuum stages over 10-year periods from 1988 to 2017, using population attributable fractions.
resultsCondom use and ART averted 19% (95% uncertainty interval: 14%-25%) and 23% (15%-31%) of HIV infections that would have occurred since 1984 and 1996, respectively. Over 2008-2017, 46% (41%-52%) of incident infections were acquired by and 35% (27%-49%) of transmissions contributed by MSM aged 18-24 years (who constitute 27% of all MSM, 19% of HIV+ MSM). MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection, those with diagnosed infection but not in care, and those on ART contributed to 41% (31%-54%), 46% (25%-56%), and 14% (7%-28%) of transmissions, respectively.
conclusionCondoms and ART have modestly impacted the HIV epidemic among Baltimore MSM to date. Interventions reaching MSM with diagnosed infection who are not in care should be implemented because the largest percentage of HIV transmissions among Baltimore MSM is attributed to this group.
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