ArticleJournal of medical virology2020
Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis.
Article in Journal of medical virology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 237 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
237 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care workers' anxiety levels: a meta-analysis.PeerJ · 2022Pooled it
- International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Mechanistic Understanding of Pandemic Dynamics: A Multiscale Algorithmic Framework.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A novel Vector-Symbolic Architecture for graph encoding and its application to viral pangenome-based species classification.BioData mining · 2026Article
- Article
- Acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2025Review
- Systematic Comparison of Different Compartmental Models for Predicting COVID-19 Progression.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Optimizing quarantine in pandemic control: a multi-stage SEIQR modeling approach to COVID-19 transmission dynamics.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Satisfaction with and factors influencing rural residents' government responses to COVID-19 in the post-pandemic era.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the Basque Country: characterizing population immunity profile from 2020 to 2022.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Transmission matrix parameter estimation of COVID-19 evolution with age compartments using ensemble-based data assimilation.PloS one · 2025Article
- Risk perceptions, knowledge and protection practices related to COVID-19 in Dessie City Administration, Northeast Ethiopia: a community-based study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- EQ-5D-5L population norms and health inequality for Trinidad and Tobago in 2022-2023 and comparison with 2012.Health and quality of life outcomes · 2024Article
- Curating models from BioModels: Developing a workflow for creating OMEX files.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- A study of some psychological variables as predictors of COVID-19 vaccination anxiety among Faculty Members of Ain Shams University.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Sensitivity analysis and global stability of epidemic between Thais and tourists for Covid -19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- How much does government's short-term response matter for explaining cross-country variation in COVID-19 infection outcomes? A regression-based relative importance analysis of 84 countries.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on consumption behaviors through recession and recovery patterns.Scientific reports · 2024Article
177 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Using the parameterized susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, we simulated the spread dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and impact of different control measures, conducted the sensitivity analysis to identify the key factor, plotted the trend curve of effective reproductive number (R), and performed data fitting after the simulation. By simulation and data fitting, the model showed the peak existing confirmed cases of 59 769 arriving on 15 February 2020, with the coefficient of determination close to 1 and the fitting bias 3.02%, suggesting high precision of the data-fitting results. More rigorous government control policies were associated with a slower increase in the infected population. Isolation and protective procedures would be less effective as more cases accrue, so the optimization of the treatment plan and the development of specific drugs would be of more importance. There was an upward trend of R in the beginning, followed by a downward trend, a temporary rebound, and another continuous decline. The feature of high infectiousness for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2) led to an upward trend, and government measures contributed to the temporary rebound and declines. The declines of R could be exploited as strong evidence for the effectiveness of the interventions. Evidence from the four-phase stringent measures showed that it was significant to ensure early detection, early isolation, early treatment, adequate medical supplies, patients' being admitted to designated hospitals, and comprehensive therapeutic strategy. Collaborative efforts are required to combat the novel coronavirus, focusing on both persistent strict domestic interventions and vigilance against exogenous imported cases.
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