ArticleScience advances2020
Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City.
Article in Science advances, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.
- Early Detection and Monitoring of Gastrointestinal Infections Using Syndromic Surveillance: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Pooled it
- REACH-OUT: Race, Ethnicity, and Air Pollution in COVID-19 Hospitalization OUTcomes.Research report (Health Effects Institute) · 2025Article
- Impact of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi from 2012 to 2022 compared to model predictions.NPJ vaccines · 2024Article
- Impact of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi from 2012 to 2022 compared to model predictions before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Prediction of effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination in Southwestern Vietnam based on a dynamic mathematical model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Predictive modeling for infectious diarrheal disease in pediatric populations: A systematic review.Learning health systems · 2024Article
- Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Prediction skill is a key test of models for epidemic dynamics. However, future validation of models against out-of-sample data is rare, partly because of a lack of timely surveillance data. We address this gap by analyzing the response of rotavirus dynamics to infant vaccination. Syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits for diarrhea in New York City reveals a marked decline in diarrheal incidence among infants and young children, in line with data on rotavirus-coded hospitalizations and laboratory-confirmed cases, and a shift from annual to biennial epidemics increasingly affecting older children and adults. A published mechanistic model qualitatively predicted these patterns more than 2 years in advance. Future efforts to increase vaccination coverage may disrupt these patterns and lead to further declines in the incidence of rotavirus-attributable gastroenteritis.
Indexed as
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.